China has a very big interest in Greenland. Greenland has vast rare earth mineral deposits and a successful development of that resource will cut deeply into China’s present day near monopoly. FT has an interesting article, my money is on the US and Denmark doing a deal.
There is a 22 mile wide impact crater on the coastline not far from Thule. Water borne debris washed from under the half-mile thick ice sheet has been assayed, found to contain platinum group metals seasoned with gold, all attributed to an iron-nickel asteroid. It’s likely not the only one per NASA’s research.
Don’t need to pay the Danes a dime. The Greenlanders can via Danish law vote for independence via referendum and in the same referendum question vote to become a US territory.
Trump was nice and said “interested Denmark?” They said no.
Here comes the rub. 64% of GLers want to be independent. Their per capita GDP is around $40K. The Danes kick in $12500 of that figure. The want to be independent swings to 78% against if it means losing that $12500. There are about 55000 of them.
We could offer every GLder $5 million and it is only $275 billion. That would be per person so papa Inuit would get 5. Mama would get 5. Even babies would get 5.
It is so a no brainer deal even I could pull it off.
Want to bet against there being a rapid order of green MGGA hats before and a hell of a party after the referendum? A few would would stay... but that is $20 million for a family of 4. That is FU money.
Oh and if the CCP outbids us... point at Hong Kong. A deal is never a deal with the Chinese. Then point out we occupied Greenland while the Nazis over ran Denmark and gave it back after we wiped the Nazis out. Our deals are gold.
I was thinking about resource extraction myself as the reason for Chinese interest, not warfare. Any Chinese naval presence in Greenland faces a supply problem. Even in an Arctic Ocean that is partially ice free part of the year, they’ll still need to sail past the Russian far east, Alaska, and the Canadians using the shortest route. I think they’re pragmatic enough to let the locals run their little government while looting the landscape.
The rare earth deposits are very important, and China has been scurrying around the globe obtaining access in many countries. However, if Trump is trying to make a deal, he shouldn’t be doing it in his typical ham handed way. His manners are totally offensive to the Danish temperament. See the movie Babette’s Feast, link below to gain an idea of Danish mentality. What worries me is that China already has 3 ice breaker ships. We only have one, and it is an old one. I think spending some money on additional icebreakers is at least as important for guarding our borders on the north as are walls on the south.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babette%27s_Feast