US Treasury Interest rate inversion has been the most reliable indicator of impending recession in the past. It correctly forecast the 2007-08 recession, among others. Only problem is it does not predict how much time will elapse before recession actually happens.
Right now US economy is going on like gang busters. But the world is not doing so good. Both China & Germany economies are under stress.
Here is an example of what is happening in Europe...
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/aug/13/danish-bank-launches-worlds-first-negative-interest-rate-mortgage
“Here is an example of what is happening in Europe...”
That’s because they don’t have Trump running their countries, but instead seem to have the worst of the US Democrats in charge there (like Pocahontas).
It’s THEIR CHOICE, but if they want to chose a command economy with all their investment money now being wasted chasing a Global Warming monster and providing welfare for their new arrivals, then there simply won’t be any way for their economies to grow. It’s not possible to have it both ways - as we’ve tried that in past, and failed every time.
We simply don’t need to follow them down that rat-hole, and we’re not.
>>>Right now US economy is going on like gang busters.
The consumer is doing well as reflected in today’s retail sales number. But the industrial production data also released today indicates a manufacturing recession. IP in 1Q19 and 2Q19 were both down quarter over quarter and July was down from June. That is impacting transportation which is seein declines in volumes.