Hard to believe someting built over the last 30 years could be so fragile. I don’t put much stock in this source either.
I guess we will see but I think it is going to take awhile and some difficulty here as well.
USA's exports only 1.5T/22T or 7% of GDP. Even if a "world wide global slowdown" of 10% were to happen because of the super hyped up trade war, it would only reduce the USA's GDP by tiny amount or about 1/10 of 7% or .7% of GDP. This is not a catastrophe. Imports would be unaffected in a slowdown.
93% of the US economy is domestic including what we produce foe exportation ( a tiny part of GDP = 7% ).
30 years is a drop in the bucket so to speak. Besides that they had tremendous help in those 30 years as well. We had over 100 years, but our own economy took a major hit in 1929 that lasted a decade. So not really hard to believe. Especially when you consider this is the first time any external pressure has been applied on them. Them devaluing their currency shows that they are already operating in desperation mode.
That China has a massive real estate bubble is not new. They really stepped on the gas pouring money into real estate when the 2008 financial crash in the West hit exports as Westerners tightened their belts. Just look up “ghost cities”. As we saw in 2008 and Japan saw in 1989, real estate bubbles are extremely painful when they burst and are a huge drag on an economy for years and years.
Trump hitting their exports to their #1 market with higher and higher tariffs comes at a terrible time for them. What do they offset the inevitable collapse of the debt bubble there with if not a huge inflow of cash from exports?
The well connected and wealthy in China have been getting as much of their money out as they could for years now. They see what’s coming.