Posted on 07/30/2019 6:12:30 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
House Republicans plotting to win back their majority in Congress fear they are on the brink of a massive wave of retirements that could force them to play defense in a high-stakes presidential election year.
Three House Republicans said last week they would not seek another term next year, catching party strategists off guard. Those announcements came earlier than in a typical election cycle, when members who are ready to hang up their voting cards usually wait until after the August recess or after the Christmas break.
Republicans in Congress strategizing to win back the House say the rush to the exits reflects the depressing reality of life in the minority and a pessimistic view of the GOP’s chances of regaining the majority.
“We are in the minority. That is never much fun in the House,” said one senior Republican member of Congress, who asked for anonymity to provide a candid assessment. “The odds are against us retaking the majority.”
Transitioning from the all-powerful majority to the back-bench minority can refocus one’s outlook on public service, said Tom Davis, a former Virginia congressman who ran the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“Moving from the majority to the minority changes your mindset about why am I here? Am I getting things done?” Davis said. “It’s a very frustrating life for some of these members right now. There’s been no pay raise for 11 years. You’ve got to maintain two households.”
The job of serving in Congress itself has changed in recent years. Members of Congress now routinely skip town hall meetings to avoid being confronted by angry constituents, they are frequently asked to defend President Trump’s Twitter habits, and the House Republican conference is increasingly influenced by a small group of hard-right conservatives.
“Serving in the era of Trump has few rewards. He has made an already hostile political environment worse. Every day there is some indefensible tweet or comment to defend or explain. It is exhausting and often embarrassing,” the member of Congress said. Even if Republicans were to win back the majority, “our edge would be narrow which means we would live under the tyranny of the Freedom Caucus. Frankly I wonder if this conference is capable of governing.”
Republican strategists say they are bracing for a new wave of exits after members check in with their families over the August recess. Two dozen Republicans won their reelection bids in 2018 by fewer than five percentage points; another 25 won by fewer than ten points.
“There are going to be a lot more [retirements] to come,” said one consultant who works for House Republicans. “Between people finding themselves having to actually work hard for the first time in their long, lazy careers and members who came in in the majority and now hate life in the minority, it's just getting started.”
Two of the members who announced their retirements last week — Reps. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.) and Martha Roby (R-Ala.) — represent deep-red districts where their successor will almost certainly be chosen in the Republican primary.
But a third, Rep. Pete Olson (R-Texas), holds a seat that is likely to be competitive. Olson won election to his final term by just five percentage points in 2018, and Democrats have signaled that districts like his, in the rapidly-growing Houston suburbs, are their prime targets.
Six Republicans have now said they will not seek reelection next year. Two more, Reps. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) and Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.), are running for a different office.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is keeping a close eye on members who represent potentially vulnerable districts through its Patriot Program. Chris Pack, a spokesman for the NRCC, said they do not anticipate a rush of departures in the coming months.
"It's just a matter of keeping the conference engaged, and that's what Chairman [Tom] Emmer (R-Minn.) is trying to do," Pack said.
Democrats will try to make life uncomfortable for those Republicans who won the narrowest races in 2018. Already, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has highlighted 19 Republicans they say are on their retirement watch list — including two, Olson and Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Ga.), who have said they won’t run again.
The next tipping point could come in September, when voters in North Carolina head to the polls in a special election meant to fill a vacant seat.
Republican Mark Harris won the seat in a 2018 election marred by absentee ballot fraud, an election the state Board of Elections overturned. Private polling shows a close race between state Sen. Dan Bishop (R) and Iraq war veteran Dan McCready (D).
“Expect more [retirements] if Republicans lose NC-09,” said another Republican strategist involved in House races.
History argues against House Republicans’ chances of winning back their majority in a presidential year. The last time a party lost the majority in a midterm only to win it back two years later came in 1948, when Harry Truman won election to a full term and carried the House with him.
No party has gone from the minority to the majority in a presidential election year since Republicans won a narrow majority in 1952, the year Dwight Eisenhower won the presidency.
More immediate historical precedent suggests Republicans might fall even farther into the minority. President Trump’s approval ratings remain mired in the 40s, and some Republicans in Congress quietly worry he is headed for defeat next year. Others are simply tired of being asked to answer for every tweet.
“It’s way too early to tell what the [political] dynamic will be, but Trump doesn’t seem to be adding to the equation at this point. He’s doing a lot with his base, but he needs to get beyond that base,” Davis said. “President Trump promised to be a change agent, and he is. He’s torn up the old rule book, and a lot of members aren’t used to playing by these rules.”
Davis said the political climate would weigh on members’ minds as they contemplate their futures.
“Nobody,” he said, “wants to go out the hard way.”
It wasn't the cause of the wave in 2016. Of the 28 Republican congressmen who retired or who ran for other offices in 2016 the Democrats only flipped 7 or 8 of those seats. If a congressman retires in a safe district that doesn't mean the seat is lost.
You can't win the war if your men aren't willing to fight.
Being in the minority isn't fun.
ABSOLUTELY.
This article is very disheartening. ONLY three of the Swamp dwelling, taxpayer-teat-sucking, open borders, big government, globalist, elitist, socialist RINOs are retiring.
With VERY few exceptions, the rest need to be successfully primaried by real conservative candidates.
My Rep is one of the few. Look him up: Paul Gosar
You are the Minority because YOU FAILED to Act like REPUBLICANS last term and deliver what you were elected to do.
One of the biggest factors was mccains no vote on health care!
It enabled the rats to run effective ads
Or greeting your friend Jack at the airport.
It enabled the rats to run effective ads
If the Supreme Court strikes down Obamacare next year, be it in June if they take it up or in late 2019 if they decide not to, then the ads that the Democrats will run will make 2018 look like a picnic.
Interesting. Didn’t something like 47 Republicans “choose not to seek reelection” in 2018? What gives?
Otherwise half will go Democrat and the other half will go to timid RINOs who will talk about being 'civil' and 'working with Democrats'.
NOTE: The only time democrats retire is when their party loses, because they do not like being out of power. Its no fun to them. Especially in the house.
Unfortunately I doubt it.
The Repus in Congress are almost invisible.
They seem to be hoping that the Dems self destruct, but that won’t win you elections.
If Trump holds out and wins, it will be a empty win when he faces a Dem House/Senate.
“Also, the DemoKKKrats are outraising the GOP big-”
It’s the HILL and I believe little of what I read there.
A quick search reveals the GOP has vastly out raised the DNC by more than 2-1.
A RINO is somebody who pretends to be a Republican, while secretly working to help the Democrat agenda get passed.
If he can’t accomplish that, then his financial backers would prefer he be gone, and replaced (if possible) by a real Democrat.
The DNC is getting killed in fundraising compared to the RNC
Bush League Republicans trying desperately to save the Bush Plan for North Mexico (aka USA)
“...the cowards are leaving Dodge so as not to soil their tailored suits”
I think it may be that they see that the exposure of the endemic corruption in Congress is coming - multi-millionaires overnight by selling you and me out - and that the gravy train might run off the rails with those in Congress when it does slimed forever. They are jumping off the train before the massive pile-up.
And good riddance to the corrupt bastards.
The GOP has only themselves to blame. They did Zippo to advance Trump’s agenda in his first year when they had the majority.
They ran to get into the swamp. Drain it and their graft dries up. Of course they leave.
It’s the HILL and I believe little of what I read there.
A quick search reveals the GOP has vastly out raised the DNC by more than 2-1.
_________________
I believe there is a discrepancy between national and local/regional fundraising.
Progs are killing it over GOP in some Districts and states. GOP/Trump are way ahead, nationally. Of course, we do expect some of that war chest to be redistributed where it will do the most good.
So we have 6 R retirements out of about ~200 R seats. That's 3%. At that rate it would take 66 years for a complete turnover.
Big whoop!
This looks like Hill nonsense.
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