UPDATE 1-China approves wheat, soy imports from Russia

Reuters by Yahoo ^ | July 26, 2019

[NorseViking]

BEIJING, July 26 (Reuters) - China has approved wheat imports from the Russian region of Kurgan, the Chinese customs office said on Friday, bringing Russia a step closer to its goal of dramatically increasing grain exports.

It also approved soybean imports from all parts of Russia, the General Administration of Customs said in a separate statement on its website, having all but halted U.S. soy imports as the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington deepened.

China was the top buyer of U.S. soybeans until Beijing slapped a 25% tariff on shipments last year in response to U.S. tariffs on a range of Chinese products.

Russia, already the world's top wheat exporter, plans to invest billions of dollars in grain infrastructure and logistics with the aim of raising its exports of the commodity to at least 55.9 million tonnes by 2035.

The figure, outlined in a 2035 strategy published by Russia's agriculture ministry earlier this month, could be as high as 63.6 million tonnes, its "optimistic scenario" forecasts showed.

This year, Russia is expected to export 41.9 million tonnes of grain, including 31.4 million tonnes of wheat, according to SovEcon, one of Russia's leading agriculture consultancies.

Russian grain supplies could play a key role in President Vladimir Putin's plan, announced a year ago, to increase the country's exports of agricultural products to $45 billion by 2024. The agriculture ministry is in charge of that initiative.

China is already importing wheat from six other Russian regions.

(Reporting by Hallie Gu and Shivani Singh Editing by Edmund Blair and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

[VTenigma]

I remember when WE were feeding the Soviet Union. I wonder how much of their new found agricultural might is helped by John Deere and Caterpillar?

[NorseViking]

Deere has a plant in Russia but its equipment is losing marketshare over years. Local makers and German CLAAS mostly hold the Russian market now and Chinese makers are gaining momentum with small farmers.

[DIRTYSECRET]

That marriage is like Bill and Hillary.

[NorseViking]

Which one?

[nathanbedford]

Let me stipulate from the beginning, I believe that the trade war with China is inevitable and must be fought and must be won. That said, here are some downsides to consider:

1. Where are the promised resumption of purchases of agricultural products by China as a condition of restarting talks?

2. China and Russia, contrary to conventional thought, are now natural allies. China has plenty of money and desperately needs energy and foodstuffs, Russia has both and desperately needs money.

3. An alliance of the landmass of Europe and Asia with all its minerals and petroleum coupled with the industrial and technological might of China, creates a formidable adversary that could dwarf the challenges to America presented by World War II where we controlled a huge majority of the world's population and a huge percentage of the world's industrial output. A Sino/Russian alliance reverses those odds. 3. A Sino/Russian alliance presents huge temptations as well as huge trepidations to weak in the knees European allies who, motivated by greed, could conceivably throw -in. The geopolitical strategic implications for America would be perilous.

4. China's acquisition of foodstuffs from Russia reveals that they are playing the long game in this trade war, certainly beyond 2020, and probably even beyond 2024. The internal divisions in America are certainly known to the Chinese. If we believe they are going to jettison a strategy that has brought them to the brink of becoming the number one economy on earth because of these tariffs, we are fatally underestimating our enemy.

[NorseViking]

How do you believe a victory in this trade war looks like?

[nathanbedford]

America retains his position as the world's leading economy. We continue to be the world's most innovative economy. Our economy is the world leader where it counts, in technology. Trade balances are restored to tolerable levels.

Hopefully, China re-invents itself as a friendly competitor to the United States rather than a mercantilist buccaneer equally concerned with maintaining American markets as in dominating trade routes.

Finally, an easing of trade and political tensions because China liberalizes itself internally.

That's my bucket list, not necessarily my prediction.

[NorseViking]

I see. Friendly competitor sounds interesting:)

[Midwesterner53]

Amazing what getting rid of communism can do for agriculture. From famine to world’s biggest grain exporter.

[lodi90]

Amazing what getting rid of communism can do for agriculture. From famine to world’s biggest grain exporter.

---

Not really. An EU super market will have 5-10x the choice of a products of a Russian supermarket. I was amazed at the lack of choice of sausages during my trip to Russia last year. In Poland and Baltics a shop will have dozens of different kinds of sausage. In Russia? Nope. Just a few. They do have large walmart style markets in Russia. But in them entire display cases will be filled with single products like a laundry detergent or a staple like salt. You can tell something is wrong with their economy looking in their consumer stores.

[NorseViking]

“” “” Not really. An EU super market will have 5-10x the choice of a products of a Russian supermarket. I was amazed at the lack of choice of sausages during my trip to Russia last year. “” “”

LOL. Did you go to 7/11 or Dollar Tree in Russia?
No place in Europe and hardly in North America beats Russia in consumer retail.
As for meat and fish in big stores they have like 3 rows with hundreds of varieties of sausages and another 3 for varieties of cured meats. Then another 3 rows of fresh meats and for frozen meat. That would include lamb, camel, horse and rabbit which are specialities in most of Europe.
The same for fish.
We are not talking about Moscow or St. Petersburg but small cities.

[RayChuang88]

Wrong. It wasn't until AFTER the fall of the Soviet Union that Ukraine and western Russia finally became wheat exporters again on a regular basis.

[bert]

My view is that internal change in China is not only progressing now but will continue. Cramping the style of youth that lives and knows of the way the rest of the world lives will be a problem for totalitarians.

Chinese are the intellectual superiors to the cloddish Russian slavs who just can’t muster the intellectual wherewithal to matter

The Chinese manufacturing by American companies will cease if China resists. Will that manufacturing return to the continental 48? Maybe but probably not. It depends on real and future costs.

There are lots of other nations where manufacturing facilities can be moved to

It will be painful for many companies but they can and wil adjust

[lodi90]

LOL. Did you go to 7/11 or Dollar Tree in Russia?
No place in Europe and hardly in North America beats Russia in consumer retail.

---

I was in major Russian cities. Shopping at places like Carrefour (the walmart of France).

Russia was reliant on the better off republics during soviet times for goods. Little has changed really. One look at a current Russian supermarket and you can tell some things are not right with their economy. They just don’t have the selection of consumer products you would expect in a country of 100+ million people. Sorry.

[granada]

China maintains good relationship with Ukraine and Poland.

So no a bit like marriage of Bill/Hillary.

[NorseViking]

My impression that Russia and Southeast Asia has the best supermarkets especially in terms of variety of stuff available. That is supported by the opinions of expats from North America and Europe including Poland.
Carrefour is far from the best and it is exactly the same in Russia as it is elsewhere.
It is not Walmart of France. More like 7/11 of France although some of their stores are larger. Walmart of France would be Auchan it is more budget than Carrefour but their stores are usually larger and offer more choices. Auchan is present in Russia too. Auchan is close to Costco in terms of variety and it certainly offers a wider range of processed meat products in Russia than Costco elsewhere. More so than any store in Poland or Baltic states.
Comparing Russian retail to Poland and Baltic states is laughable in that sense. It is not even relatively close but it an opposite way to that you are saying.

[StoneWall Brigade]

Excellent Post

[VTenigma]

Better read my post again Ray.

[okie 54]

Let Russia buy all of their substandard Walmart junk