Election model that predicted 2018 blue wave has Trump losing, liberal voters ‘terrified’

Washington Examiner ^ | 07/01/19 | Paul Bedard

[lone star annie]

Yes between voter fraud and Mueller Russia revving up its a wonder we didn’t lose more seats. Now that the Mueller stuff is over hopefully that will bring Trump swing voters back in the fold and increase turnout.

[TTFX]

What about moderates and conservatives who were very doubtful about Trump in 2016 but now that he has a clear record to run on will vote for him in droves in 2020?

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She believes they’re fewer than the Democrats who stayed home in 2016.

She says: Bases decide elections. The Dem base is bigger. If they are motivated, they win.

[LibWhacker]

“Trump’s 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker,” said Bitecofer.

Her prediction in 2018 was a Royal Flush in Spades. She'll never repeat.

[ImpBill]

Not that I disagree at all with your postulation. However, I am curious as to which of the 25 or so Democrats running isn’t “God awful”, in your opinion?

They have all moved so far to the fringe left in the primary season, how will one of them move back towards the center and be believable?

[Nifster]

Republicans added in the senate

2018 was a mixed bag. Many of the dems that won did so as moderates. They won’t have that claim with what the dems are doing to themselves

We need to turn out our vote

[Vendome]

“Bitecofer” what An unfortunate name

[mylife]

Good luck bitches

[Vendome]

Yep, and the GOP fielded either very weak replacements or conceded districts, offering no opposition...

[DiogenesLamp]

Don't forget that new bullsh*t law in California that allows anyone to collect "votes" and turn them in at the polling station. We lost ten seats because of people showing up with huge loads of ballots being turned in at polling stations.

That is some bullsh*t.

Look up "Ballot Harvesting."

[Styria]

Did her model for 40+ seat gain include California continuing to count found votes for weeks until they had the results they wanted?

[scottiemom]

I like the way you think. May I add one thing. We are being sabotaged by a group of obsessed, mentally deranged reprobates and have been since the day of Trump's election. PAYBACKS ARE HELL, especially from an enemy without mental problems. We will make them regret that they ever won the 2020 election as well ever having been born. What laws they pass will be the path to their own demise. Their turn at bat will be about as satisfying as coitus interruptus.

[kiryandil]

They had the choice not to start it.

Now it's on.

[steve86]

“After their one-time amazing feat they tend to return to the accuracy of the background noise and confusion”

Like one-trick ponies in the stock market. Regression toward the mean. Outliers are never repeated.

[kiryandil]

The Dem base and the Pubbie base are about the same size.

It's the conservatives that make the difference - that, and how hard the Dems cheat on the Big City Plantations.

They phoned in the cheat in PA and MI during the 2016 election.

[steve86]

“This is not statistics it’s some computer model”

The model utilizes analytical, inferential and predictive statistics. That’s all it is, really.

[kiryandil]

We don't have to accept a "victory" for their side.

They've set the precedent.

[crusher2013]

It was a blue ballot harvesting/stuffing/fraud wave.

[mrsmith]

Very practical.
I do think it overstates the media’s power too much.
But maybe not.

[thoughtomator]

same crazy bitch, just before the 2016 election

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other_b_581cb253e4b044f827a78bf9

[faucetman]

Why do you scare yourselves with this hogwash?

First of all NO ONE can predict the future.

Why? Because it hasn’t happened yet.

Trump 2020 in a LANDSLIDE! Don’t doubt it for a second, chicken littles.