Posted on 05/29/2019 11:30:34 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
Factory shutdowns designed to cope with disruption from a 29 March Brexit, slashed UK car production in April by almost a half.
Even though Brexit is delayed the factories still closed and production fell 44.5% according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
In what it called "an extraordinary month", the SMMT said only 70,971 cars rolled off production lines.
That was 56,999 fewer than in April a year ago. Production for both home and overseas markets fell by 43.7% and 44.7% respectively.
(Excerpt) Read more at bbc.com ...
Camels are getting popular anyway.
Britain could really use a Trump. Too bad we don’t see one yet.
Can’t wait to see it turning into Madagascar of Europe.
Painting, sculpting, photography, etc. etc.
Farage has been heroic. Brexit wouldn’t have got this far without him.
But yeah, there’s got to be a wholesale replacement of the Conservative Party not just in the EU, but in the UK parliament, before there is any hope for them again.
There is no way this made any kind of economic sense.
Pure intimidation and thuggery. “Nice job you have there... It would be a shame if something were to happen to it!“
Achmed would like to sell you a camel, One hump or two?
Not really. Economically Brexit without a customs union would lead to a 5% or so drop in British GDP and repercussions over a decade.
The reasons are:
1. UK manufacturing is heavily integrated into the Western European supply chain - with cars assembled in the UK with tyres from France, seats manufactured in Italy from Bulgarian leather etc. - and all of this is dependent on JIT manufacturing. Any delays at ports or increases in customs costs will push manufacturers to shift factories to the continent i.e. within the customs union
2. Many Asian and American companies set up base in the UK to sell to the rest of the EU. Once the UK is out, it no longer makes economic sense - that’s why Toyota, Honda etc. are shifting operations out of the UK.
3. The UK specializes in value-added goods, meaning that they buy partly finished products, assemble them with others or add to them and send them down. So a drop in the GDP hasn’t helped, only made import costs for goods consumed in the UK higher
4. The UK moved from manufacturing in the 80s and 90s to financial services. Now thousands of those have already moved to different countries that are in the customs union
5. Many EU citizens who were paying taxes and buying goods have left. This will reduce the consumption
6. Many locals are still worried about the uncertainty, so spending is down. Ditto for companies
I don’t believe that the UK economy will collapse post brexit, but it will be hit by a 5% or so drop. This is different from whatthe pro-leave group said, namely that the UK would thrive immediately after voting leave. But hey, that’s marketing
The thing is - assume there is a Trump clone in the UK. Assume he somehow has been lying low as a Tory MP for so long and he suddenly appears.
What can he do?
Let’s assume he goes full into no-deal Brexit. Let’s assume Labour doesn’t support a no-confidence (for fear of an early GE) and lets the UK crash out.
What does T2 do now?
The economy will be a shambles.
the UK does NOT have the leverage the USA has — the USA is a continent-sized, fully self-sustaining, hyperdominant economy. The UK is not.
Trump has the luxury of sitting back and letting trading partners squirm. The UK does not.
Compounded is that they don’t have a USP.
Don’t bring up what they were in the 1800s or even before 1970. This is a completely different entity now
What are the prospects of the US/Canada/Mexico/Asia taking up the slack created by an expensive and vengeful EU in the supply chain?
All of your points have to do with long-term effects of Brexit. These may or may not come to pass, but they are certainly within the realm of possibility.
My point is that March 29 had absolutely no effect. This seasonal shut-down was moved forward to coincide with this date as a political demonstration. The seasonal shut-down had nothing to do with Brexit. There was no reason to close down production earlier than usual, and the date of the normal shut down was advanced in order to create political pressure against Brexit.
In August, the numbers August ‘18 to August ‘19 will be much better, because there will be no annual August shut-down. But, somehow, I don’t think that will be much of a story.
Joe Lucas is out of business, thankfully.
Anyway, I thought they gave up after that.
Though, to look at it another way - Great Britain is an overcrowded island - especially the south-east. They have a lot of cars and reasonably good public transport. They don’t NEED cars - you can get by without quite well.
The Brits need to find another way of making a living. It’s not impossible. What IS difficult is adjusting - adjusting from being an empire based on trade, a leader in manufacturing, to seeing a world where that no longer is the case.
Good points, thank you for that insight.
BBC= deep UK state radio = just as corrupt as our MSM
Ergo, they’ll only talk about negative news items that support their anti-Brexit views.
And to think we used to actually trust them.
So the EU put a trade embargo on UK vehicles? Really?
I don't see this as a vengeful EU.
Look at the criss-crossing supply chain. To prevent delays in customs you need to remove all border checks. Even between the US and Canada there are border checks, and they can delay supply chains, but those are smoothen over decades. The UK is moving suddenly off and customs are coming in that haven't been there for 20 years. This will cause a delay even if no malice.
Of NAFTA or Asia taking up the slack - well it's mixed.
Take Honda or Toyota. they moved to the UK as they knew the laws and since it was in the EU, they saved on costs. now that's no longer the case so they are shifting some manufacturing (whose end products go to the EU and the UK) to Japan and some to the continent. I expect that to remain the same for NAFTA and others
This IS an opportunity for American firms who either manufacture in the EU or in the US to grab business - look for efficiencies of scale.
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