The fetch of plentiful moisture off the Gulf is going to keep feeding the front itself. Remember, this was an Arctic bomb cyclone that dumped up to 30” of snow in the Rockies and upper Midwest. It’s sucking on warm Gulf waters like I chug a cold beer in August. That vertical column of cold air mixing down and warm, humid air convecting up is making for some seriously strong storms. It’s when you get a strong CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and a more horizontal convection profile that your see the worst straight-line winds and cyclonic activity. In systems like this, it’s not specifically where the center of the low is heading; there’s a myriad of other factors involved that only a trained meteorologist and a computer can attempt to forecast. My training consists of applied field meteorology and some college courses. I’m on a new computer and some of the analytical programs I diddle with aren’t loaded. I’ll tell you this much: I’ve been a weather nut for half a century and I’m in the middle of filing for medical disability; if/when my lawyers ram it through, I’m going to finish my damned weather degree.
Thanks, I guess this north, northeast front will just continue drifting gradually to the east until it slowly crosses Alabama starting after midnight in the western part of the state.
I’m in the 5 am to noon threat area and will probably try to be awake around 4:30 and see what’s up. I have a storm pit built in the 1950s that is still usable.
What worries me is that if this warming trend continues the Gulf Stream could be erased when it’s waters get north, but don’t freeze creating saltier/heavier water that will sink and flow back to the equator. Then we really will get cold weather in the north and especially Europe which could start the next ice age. I am 80 years old have lived in the East and the Middle West, and I have watched the warming trend for several decades now. Whether it is anthropogenic or not, warming is really happening. Reducing fossil fuel use may not be the answer, but we do need to consider our low lying cities and military facilities, also drier and wetter areas that need to change operating procedures and crops. Already we are seeing more major hurricanes, much heavier rainfall and flooding, etc.