I've owned 3 small businesses. Number 1 was a simple shipping warehouse being the middleman between the Holly Studios and theaters with no requirement of inventory. The prints came in, we processed them and shipped them to the theaters.
The other 2 depended on inventory control and possible shortages. Number 2 was a print shop where we always had to ensure backup supplies of certain paper types, colored inks, and misc. associated supplies. Number 3 was a nightclub in Reno where close control of alcohol inventory is essential to profit. Those 2, under my commonsense guidance kept a reserve inventory of supplies in case of any natural or man-made shortage. Both were successful and allowed me to retire at age 47.
Believe me, one week of closing off Mexican trucks will NOT cause a recession. It will devastate Northern Mexico commerce and they WILL change their tune.
According to a quote in this article, the whole of the automobile manufacturing industry would be shut down within days.
Quoting from the article:
"We don't just trade with each other. We're making things together," said Kristin Dziczek, vice president of the Center for Automotive Research in Michigan. "Mexico is a source of 37 percent of all imported auto parts to the U.S. Every vehicle has Mexican parts in it."
U.S. assembly plants are especially dependent on Mexico for critical parts such as wiring harnesses. Without them, those plants would soon grind to a halt. And that in turn would idle domestic parts-makers.
"We'll see auto production in the U.S. shut down pretty quickly. Some within hours and certainly the whole industry within days," Dziczek said.
This woman is VP of an organization involved in the auto industry in Michigan. I would expect her to have just a wee bit more knowledge of the auto industry, and how a border shutdown would affect it, than you or I would.
Obviously, running a small business for yourself differs vastly from running a publicly traded company. Executives often earn enormous bonuses based upon share price, rather than the long term viability/profitability of the company. They often do not manage for the continuity of the business, rather for share price, short term profit and cash flow.
If you are looking to reduce costs and increase 'free cash' (and, most importantly, your executive BONUS), you s-t-e-t-c-h out your maintenance intervals, cut maintenance expense and REDUCE INVENTORY! Executives gamble with their companies to bump up short term share prices to boost their bonuses. Eventually, they retire and leave the next executive to fix the mess they made. I experienced this Bravo Sierra while working in accounting with my former employer. One exec would reduce maintenance and increase cashflow, then leave before it came crashing down, leaving his successor to rebuild the equipment and maintenance processes. This is the way of power industry, and most manufacturers.
It is common knowledge that most manufacturers have minimal inventory on hand. There is no incentive to maintain inventories, in fact maintaining inventories is a DISincentive since, it reduces free cash flow, which REDUCES executives' bonuses.
With PDJT giving a year long 'grace period', it offers US manufacturers the opportunity to BUILD UP INVENTORIES before he closes the border. They have the opportunity to avoid a disaster, IF they so choose.
You made the comment, "If their COO doesn't have such fore-sight, then they deserve to go out of business or replace him/her." and in a perfect world, I would agree fully. Problem is, it ain't a perfect world!
Let us suppose that America 'followed through' on that idea. Let's say that GM failed again. All of a sudden, their 53,000 employees are out of work. Perhaps another 247,000 in suppliers are out of work. Then there are all those affected by not having those GM employees spend their wages in your store. Suddenly, 53,000 GM jobs lost results in 500,000 lost jobs. So many lost jobs under a President's watch, especially one who promises to MAGA, is a good way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, in regards to the 2920 election. I think PDJT is doing what is best for America by postponing his actions for a year.
Consider this: What gets a tin pot dictator's attention first, a USN task force sitting on his doorstep or, the THREAT of a USN task force sitting on his doorstep? In most cases, the threat is enough to get the desired results. PDJT is just playing the same kind of game, with the economics of Mexico. I like it.