Posted on 02/28/2019 9:52:46 AM PST by upchuck
The Hanoi summit that President Trump held with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was a roller-coaster ride that vividly illustrated the pluses and pitfalls of Mr. Trumps top-down style of diplomacy.
Over two days, Mr. Trump boasted of the personal chemistry he believes he has established with the North Korean dictator and voiced confidence that together they could achieve a breakthrough that would turn isolated North Korea into a thriving non-nuclear state.
But the geniality wasnt enough to overcome the fundamentally different expectations of what steps North Korea would need to take to obtain major sanctions relief.
Having failed to significantly narrow the gaps at lower levels, Mr. Trump gambled that his rapport with Mr. Kim would lead in Hanoi to the Norths first tangible steps toward denuclearization.
The result was a high-profile impasse and uncertainty over whether Washington and Pyongyang had hit a temporary bump in the road or struck a brick wall that would stymie future progress.
This really speaks to the lack of preparation, said Joseph Yun, the former State Department envoy for North Korean issues. You cannot draft a joint statement out of nothing. They never quite got around to building a consensus around sanctions, and that led to the deadlock.
Mr. Trump has had a proclivity to personalize the North Korean issue since taking office. When relations between the two nations were tense and Pyongyang was conducting missile tests, Mr. Trump mocked Mr. Kim as rocket man and warned that his military buildup could end up as a suicide mission.
But since the June summit in Singapore, Mr. Trump has cast Mr. Kim as a bold leader who is determined to achieve a better economic future for his country. The presidents praise of Mr. Kim has been so generous that on Thursday Mr. Trump ventured the North Korean leader hadnt been aware of the abuse of Otto Warmbier, the American student who died after being jailed in North Korea for more than a year.
He tells me that he didnt know about it, Mr. Trump told a news conference Thursday, referring to Mr. Kim. I will take him at his word.
Some experts have seen merit in Mr. Trumps approach, saying that in a totalitarian society like North Korea, Mr. Trump has been dealing with the one person empowered to make important decisions on the countrys nuclear potential and relations with the West.
But others say that having a channel to the North Korean leadership isnt sufficient if the two sides interests arent aligned or at least partially bridged by preparatory talks.
For months, the North has signaled that it is willing to close all or key parts of the Yongbyon nuclear complex in exchange for a U.S. decision to lift major economic sanctions. The U.S. has signaled that it is looking for more: The dismantlement of clandestine facilities used to enrich uranium and other hidden atomic sites and not just the shuttering of Yongbyon.
If the two sides had opted for the traditional bottom-up approach to diplomacy, their diplomats would have worked to close the divide and only arranged for a summit when they appeared to be within striking distance of an agreement.
However, U.S. and North Korean diplomats have had only intermittent meetings since the June summit, and both sides bet they would be more successful by pressing their case at another summit.
Mr. Kim calculated that Mr. Trump would be more flexible in agreeing to lift sanctions than his subordinates. Mr. Trump, for his part, assumed that he was the best person to pursue the art of the nuclear deal.
As the summit approached, there was speculation that progress could be made that might lead to the opening of liaison offices, a peace declaration and at least some tangible denuclearization steps on the part of the North.
The White Houses confidence going into the Hanoi meeting was running so high that it announced on Wednesday night the two leaders would sign a joint agreement on Thursday afternoon.
Obviously a blunder by both sides, Gary Samore, who served as the senior National Security Council official on weapons of mass destruction issues for President Obama, wrote in an email. Failure is a good lesson for both sides that summits need to be prepared in advance.
Flying to his next stop in Manila, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vigorously defended Mr. Trumps top-level approach in Hanoi while insisting the administration had also pursued its denuclearization demands at lower levels before the summit.
When you are dealing with a country that is of the nature of North Korea, it is often the case that only the most senior levels have the capacity to make those important decisions, Mr. Pompeo said.
We got some of them on this trip, he added without providing details on which decisions were made. But you dont know which one you are actually going to get until the two leaders have a chance to get together.
The two sides plan to keep talking, Mr. Pompeo indicated, but when and at what level they will next engage is unclear.
Some former U.S. officials were philosophical about the setback in Hanoi, saying that the summit had enabled the two sides to test each others limits without slamming the door on future diplomacy. The U.S., they said, had pressed to see how far Pyongyang would go on denuclearization while the North Koreans pushed to see how far Washington was prepared to go on removing sanctions.
This was a necessary part of the bargaining process, said Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official who negotiated with North Korea on its missile programs. But it would have been much better to do this at the professional level before scheduling a high-stakes summit meeting.
I think the optics of stepping away are good. It says to the average Joe that Trump is serious business and isn’t going to give away the farm. It’s a simple takeaway that anyone can understand, and it contrasts well with Obama bending over for Iran.
As soon as the China tariffs go into effect, the Norks will come back to the table. This move on Kim’s part was to test whether Trump would walk away. Trump walked.
Would these fools in the commie media have been pleased had President Trump signed a deal that would have been detrimental to the United States, would that have made them all happy campers? Un only wanted to give up ONE portion of his nukes, and get ALL sanctions lifted, that is what he wanted, Trump said HELL NO..because look at what Obama did with Iran, he gave them billions of OUR tax dollars and got nothing in return. Trump would have been a total hypocrite had he basically done the same thing. Id rather him walk away from a deal that would have been HORRIBLE than sign something that would have bit him in the ass. Nothing President Trump does, NOTHING will ever satisfy these morons
Keep in mind that EVERY publication including many conservative publications blasted Reagan for “failing” at Reykjavik . . . just as Gorby was desperately trying to revive the talks, knowing he got crushed.
See my section on this in the upcoming “Reagan;The American President.” (Out May 1).
https://www.amazon.com/dp/1642930822/ref=nav_timeline_asin?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1
Screw all of the anti-Trump “formers”. That is why they are failed former and irrelevant. What the left saw as victory with the Norks was sipping champagne over a BS deal of lies. The Swamp is joyous over this news. Anything negative for President Trump is positive for the Swamp.
Pompeo is correct. A communist dictatorship does not permit iniative by lower ranking officials and reserves all decisions to the top level. Trump short-circuited that, forcing Kim to engage directly and stripping away the obfuscations and delays of low level discussions. The result is that Kim and his regime are exposed as unreasonable, which in turn justifies a tightening of sanctions.
No, actually, Trump’s actions were entirely appropriate and to be expected when one of the parties throws a wrench into the works. In this case, it was likely a case of the Nork generals perceiving some weakness on the president’s part due to the Cohen testimony and some trepidation that Kim might be getting a little too cozy with Trump. Trump says, “OK, we’re done” and the Norks look at one another with the “WTF, That didn’t go well” look.
With respect to the first point, the Dems pulled a Vietnam on the president.
I have strong areas of disagreement with this kid at times - but this is pretty good analysis: https://youtu.be/1ZktbPoQxo4
Maybe you misunderstood. I did not mean that Trump was stupid, but that all these commentators believed that.
I think President Trump did exactly what he needed to do and did the right thing. I was just disgusted by the writer of the article.
Yes he did.......and not to forget the UNBELIEVABLE $21 Billion U.S. Trade Deal he signed off on with Vietnam while there! That is huge!
The press of course is again trying to 'drive their agenda' negatively toward President Trump.
THIS is how they parted...President Trump says goodbye to Chairman Kim at close of Hanoi Summit.....pic by Sarah Sanders
That Rolling Stones article is a crack up. Amazing what going a few years forward does to that.
“We walked away but it was very friendly. We shook hands. It was friendly.”...... Chairman Kim promised me there would be no testing. I believe him.” ..President Trump
“Kim was not prepared to do what the United States expected so President Trump walked, ending the summit early.....”We ‘agreed’ we would continue to work together on the issues.”....Mike Pompeo
Trump convinces Kim that the asshole US congress is trying to upstage Kim with the nonsense distraction and it would be better to disclose a deneuclearization at a Surprise event. Catch them with their D**ks in their hands and send them to the political scrap heap where they belong.
I know this is a dream, but wouldn't it be a truly NOVEL idea.
I think this was as much a message to China as it was to NK. "I am not Obama, Bush, etc. We get an honest deal or we walk."
These are the types of actions that will get Trump reelected.
The problem with negotiating with the US for foreign leaders is, while they can trust Pres. Trump, what happens after he leaves office? From a foreign perspective our country’s policies can dramatically change from one administration to another.
Kim probably knows he has to do something or his country starves and he dies in a coup. But if he gives up everything he could face a coup or attacked. Remember what happened to Ghaddafi.
Now think about the Iran deal. Obama gave it all away...and we got nothing.
Anyone who works for the WSJ has covered stories on mergers, buyouts, business dissolution, etc., and knows well that the more complicated a problem is, the longer it takes to reach an acceptable solution.
I would judge that dealing with N. Korea is as complex as it gets.
Therefore it is obvious that the author is a Never Trumper and therefore, a fool.
NK wants 5 of the 11 2016-17 sanctions lifted in return for dismantling Yongbyon.
They previously agreed to reveal all of their nuke processing facilities and gave us the list.
At the summit, we told them that we knew about a secret facility that they were hiding. They were stunned.
We said that we want a full list of every processing and storage facility, and that we want the right to inspect onsite along with any other facilities that we suspect.
They went dark and were unable to respond.
The summit was over at that point.
Besides, Yongbyon has been only a shell for years since they tore the cooling tower down 10 years ago.
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