American Enterprise Will Beat China in Outer Space

"China is best placed to win a space race, given its well-coordinated, disciplined, technocratic system, able to set and maintain long-term goals," gloomily predicted a recent Washington Post editorial. Yet current Chinese practice and American history show that precisely America's ability to harness private enterprise for national interests will be the decisive element that will enable the United States to dominate space.

China's January 2 historic first of landing a rover on the Moon's dark side occasioned the editorial, which noted that "China aims to be the leading space power by 2045." Indeed, others have observed that China "today launches more rockets into space than any other country—39 last year, compared to 31 by the United States, 20 by Russia and eight by Europe." Nonetheless, China only spent in 2017 an estimated $8.4 billion on space programs, far less than America's $48 billion.

Not just these figures, but also growing Chinese private sector utilization call into question the editorial's argument that "[i]n the United States, the discussion on space exploitation is led by a disorganized commercial sector." China's secretive space program has been opening to private enterprise since 2014, contrary to what others have noted as the myth that "Chinese aerospace industry is a handful of huge, state-owned companies that do everything." This situation reflects that the "space race of old was between governments, but we may be on the brink of a 21^st century private space race on an international scale."

For example, the New York Times reports that "miniaturization of rockets and spacecraft places outer space within reach of a broader swath of the economy," as some 150 startups are now launching rockets just 56 feet tall. Similarly, famed physicist and futurist Michio Kaku has noted that India launched in 2013 a Mars orbiter for $70 million while the 2015 Hollywood blockbuster space movie The Martian cost $100 million to produce. Meanwhile Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic intends to introduce space tourism in 2019.

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