[Cronos]

Trading just by WTO is not good for England:

The UK exports 44% of all trade to the EU so the UK will face MFN WTO tariffs imposed by the UK’s (by far) largest trading partner, the EU.

The demand for much of the UK exported farming produce will immediately fall with EU MFN tariffs as high as over 80% for some beef products and an average of over 30% for dairy produce.


1. since there are now new applicable tariffs, there will be new requirements for customs checks --> Trucks 'face six day wait delay at Dover' in a no deal Brexit
   
   
2. Supply chains: To provide cargo road transport services between EU countries or entirely within one EU country, a firm requires a ‘Community Licence’ issued by an EU Member State. On Brexit Day 1, Community Licences issued by the UK will not be accepted by the EU. Moreover, Community Licences are issued only to firms registered in the country issuing the licence, so UK firms may not be able to obtain a new licence unless they re-establish within the EU-27. There is a system of permits which allows a limited amount of truck drivers from certain countries without a Community Licence to enter the EU every year. For the UK, that limit is 1,224 permits annually. For reference, 500 trucks cross into the EU from the UK daily.
   
   
3. This WON't "free the UK from EU regulation" -- In the decades of UK being a member of the EU, the UK has objected to only 72 EU regulations out of 4,514 proposed. The entire list is here: The 72 laws the UK voted against as examples, the UK voted against
   • A ban on livestock growth-boosters with hormonal, thyrostatic or beta-agonist effects (carcinogenic residue in meat) https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-...
   • Safety advisers dealing with transport of dangerous goods on public roads must be properly trained and regulated https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-...
   • Trucks for livestock journeys over 8 hours must have bedding, feed, water, ventilation, partitions and access for inspectors EUR-Lex - 31998R0411 - EN - EUR-Lex

   For real the WTO rules only will help the UK /sarc

   I'm really looking forward to Brexit and seeing what happens over the period 2019-2022.

[Berlin_Freeper]

I am hoping the UK has a big Brexit party. Something exciting to watch. Unfortunately the Mayor of London might spike it.

[arthurus]

These projections are probably only realistic if Brexit is done on the “deal” PM May thought she made. If a clean break with no deal is made things will turn out much better.A US-UK partnership will take up a lot of the slack and natural adjustments will be made all around.England will be far better off with a clean break than with any sort of deal. A deal will lock in unfavorable relationships and remove some tethers from the UK economy.