[Ben Ficklin]

You can find that on the internet in Exxon's 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.

They say that world gasoline usage will peak in 2030 and begin to fall, and by 2040, 40% of cars and light duty trucks worldwide will be electric.

Exxon has to publish that report for their stockholders.

Exxon acknowledges that they can't predict technology advances or future govt policies and that others predict a shift to electrics both sooner and later

Here's a link to that page

At the bottom of that page is a link to the entire Exxon 2018 report

[jdsteel]

From that site:

Future battery costs and government policies are uncertain, hence there is a wide range of perspectives on future electric vehicle growth, with third-party estimates for 2040 ranging from a factor of three higher and lower than the Outlook

I do not give the “Outlook” crest for any more predictive powers of 20 years from now than I for you. My prediction: they will be larger than .2% of the global fleet. Far, far less than 50% of the global fleet. And distortion of the free market by use of government policies will be responsible for a good part of that growth. More, the reason for this government intervention, Global Warming/AGW/ACC will still not have occurred.