Posted on 01/14/2019 12:25:44 PM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
In the past, scientists were reluctant to attribute particular extreme weather events to climate change. But for the second consecutive year, they have done so with confidence.
Thanks to improved modeling, increased computer power, and better skill in interpreting data, attribution science – a young branch of climate science – has been blossoming, says Jeff Rosenfeld, editor-in-chief of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS).
Based on the research of 120 scientists in 10 countries, the report comprises 18 peer-reviewed chapters; each deals with a particular weather phenomenon during 2017.
“The studies look at what the climate is now, then they run tests to compare it to what the world might have been had we not been releasing greenhouse gases at this rate,” Rosenfeld said at AGU. “It’s a calculation of how the risks have changed in the new climate.”
Although natural variability was important in initiating the heatwave, two global climate model (GCM) ensembles indicate that the record sea surface temperatures, up to 2.5 °C above the long-term norm, “were virtually impossible without anthropogenic influence”, the scientists report.
(Excerpt) Read more at physicsworld.com ...
In the past, scientists were reluctant to attribute particular extreme weather events to climate change.
The climate change cultists can predict bad weather. That’s why they need to run our lives.
They know what’s best for us.
two global climate model (GCM) ensembles indicate
Climate change, if it exists, is an effect, not a cause.
ZZZzzzzzzzz......
So now, they make sure every possible outcome is predicted by somebody in the field and when the weather happens, they find the prediction that came closest to actual events, point to it, and trumpet the genius of their science.
Next year will see an increase in wildfires, a decrease in wildfires, a well above average activity hurricane season, a below average activity hurricane season and an increase in shark attacks and maple sap production, along with a decrease in shark attacks and maple sap production.
“Attribution Science” ain’t science.
It’s the same old “the science is settled” lie in a new package.
Now that we don't have priests and shamans who attribute extreme weather to an all-encompassing divine force anymore, the "scientists" have to pick up the slack.
So these are not PREDICTIVE models, but models which are built to validate their guess that climate has changed. This is total hogwash! I have built stochastic models, albeit in a different domain. But if I had produced results like this, my bosses would have told me to give it up and quite wasting my time.
My model reproduced actual results from running systems and then predicted what would occur if we altered those systems in a prescribed way. For my model, the predictions were correct within 10% of measured results after the system was altered.
The hockey stick model, which is the only one they have published for public perusal, was far, far outside of reasonable norms for a predictive model. It demonstrated that it was total baloney.
I had to build my own random number generator, the distribution generators, and validate both before I could even begin to model my system.
There’s no measurable criteria. There is no empirical data . There are no standards or statistical support for what global warming ( climate change ) is. It is a hoax derived to take your stuff and make you live under the control of government. People are rebelling all over the globe. You see it in the massive multi country “ yellow vest” movement. It must be pulled out by it roots aggressively and removed from our schools. It is a total lie.
Climate change is real. Has been going on for 14 billion years (give or take a year).
Magnetic pole flipping is real. Happens about every 12,000 years. Happened about 12,000 years ago. It’s doing it again right now.
There is NOTHING we can do to stop climate change or the magnetic pole movement. NOTHING.
These sources are so stuck on their religion and its purpose that they are ready to throw all of there credibility out the window. Only brainwashed people even listen to them.
None of them model water vapor - you know rain clouds humidity that make up the lions share of so called greenhouse gasses.
So it does not matter how many - they are all fatally flawed and flat out wrong.
Sigh... Rehashed old made up crap.
but don’t tell another that it’s really just Winter
The very first sentence is a lie.
For decades global warming alarmists have attributed every major weather event as proof of man made global warming.
Liars lie.
Absolutely. Show me where any of the IPCC models predicted anything close to our current “climate” conditions. No way.
For us we’re having a relatively mild and uneventful winter season.
Just the normal cold and snow. Nothing too awful at all.
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