Yes. I seem to remember that one of your former personas used to ask that question. Those who worked for Northern manufactures had jobs, some of which had been made possible by the existing protective US tariff. Northern manufacturers anticipated greater profits and probable future expansion of their businesses under the higher Morrill Tariff.
To remain competitive with lower priced European goods in the South, the prices of Northern goods would have to be lowered significantly below those supported by the Morrill Tariff. Northern goods sold in the South would have to pay the same tariff to the South as that placed on European goods by the Confederate tariff. This would put much price and profit pressure on Northern manufacturers. This meant less profit and likely fewer jobs for Northern workers. All of that would reduce the $200 million dollars of Northern goods sold in the South. Ripple effects would follow throughout the Northern economy.
The South initially set their tariff the same as the then current US tariff, then about two weeks later the North passed the much higher Morrill Tariff for the US. Talk about shooting themselves in the foot! That set up the two-tariff problem that prompted Northern newspapers to basically cry 'blockade the Southern ports', 'our pockets have been touched'. Northern import businesses started closing. The picture looked bleak for Northern tariff income.
Whatever percentage of the tariff had been paid by the South in the past, Lincoln certainly realized the problem the Northern economy and the government finances would be faced with because of the loss of the South and the two-tariff problem that the Republicans had created. As Lincoln said, "And what is to become of the revenue? I shall have no government -- no resources." [Link 1 and Link 2].
Lincoln was a smart guy. He thought outside the box and provoked a war so that he could invade the South and blockade their ports solving the two-tariff problem. The tariff was not the main reason the South seceded, but the tariff income problem was the reason why Lincoln started the war.
As Lincoln basically said in his inaugural speech, you can keep your slaves, but I want your tariff income.
Except the Morrill tariff was not that much higher.
In effect, the two competing tariffs were the old 1846 Walker tariff, passed by Democrats under Southern Democrat President Polk and the newer, lower 1857 Tariff passed by Democrats under Democrat President Buchanan.
Morrill basically returned to 1846 levels.
So, in February 1861 Confederates adopted the lower 1857 Tariff and two weeks later the Union returned to the 1846 Walker tariff levels.
rustbucket: "Northern goods sold in the South would have to pay the same tariff to the South as that placed on European goods by the Confederate tariff."
Which is the real key here -- not the 8% of US imports (circa $30 million) which landed in Confederate ports, but the $200 million in Northern "exports" to the South.
Those now would have to pay, in effect, export tariffs on top import tariffs paid for raw materials.
So the real issue here was not whether Walker charged 25% on some item and the 1857 Tariff only 20%, that was irrelevant.
What mattered is the fact that Northern exporters would have to pay a tariff twice.
The same is true going the other way -- if Europeans landed their presumably cheaper goods in, say, Confederate New Orleans for sale in Union St. Louis, they'd pay two tariffs, one each to Confederates and the Union.
So the individual rates were irrelevant, what mattered was paying twice.
rustbucket: "All of that would reduce the $200 million dollars of Northern goods sold in the South.
Ripple effects would follow throughout the Northern economy."
The damage would be done not by marginally lower Confederate rates, but by the fact that exporters, North or South, would pay two tariffs instead of just one.
rustbucket: "The South initially set their tariff the same as the then current US tariff, then about two weeks later the North passed the much higher Morrill Tariff for the US.
Talk about shooting themselves in the foot! "
But the Morrill rates were more or less irrelevant.
What mattered was importers & exporters North or South would now have to pay two tariffs instead of just one.
rustbucket: "That set up the two-tariff problem that prompted Northern newspapers to basically cry 'blockade the Southern ports', 'our pockets have been touched'.
Northern import businesses started closing.
The picture looked bleak for Northern tariff income."
Maybe, but remember, one purpose of the new Morrill tariff was to reduce imports by, ahem, putting American manufacturing first and making America's products great.
That's a historical theme of Republicans from Day One.
So the fact that some Democrat globalist importers in New York were fearful did not overly concern Republicans.
rustbucket: "As Lincoln said, "And what is to become of the revenue? I shall have no government -- no resources." [Link 1 and Link 2]."
Those quotes are totally suspect as misrepresenting Lincoln's concerns.
Confederate Col. John Baldwin's 1866 account is especially ludicrous in claiming Lincoln believed all Federal tariffs were at stake in Charleston Harbor.
In fact, Charleston produced well under 1% of US tariff revenues.
So regardless of what Lincoln thought of tariffs in general, Fort Sumter had nothing to do with it.
rustbucket: "Lincoln was a smart guy.
He thought outside the box and provoked a war so that he could invade the South and blockade their ports solving the two-tariff problem.
The tariff was not the main reason the South seceded, but the tariff income problem was the reason why Lincoln started the war. "
Jefferson Davis started the war, as he'd promised, when he thought Confederate "integrity" was "assailed" at Fort Sumter.
And because Davis wanted the Upper South to secede too, even Lincoln's mere announcement of a resupply mission to Union troops in Fort Sumter was plenty enough to trigger Davis.
Once war started, then many other issues jumped to the forefront, including Gen. Scott's Anaconda plan, originally prepared under Secretary of War Jefferson Davis in the event of a Southern rebellion.
It cannot have been a surprise to the new Confederate President.
You are confusing me with someone else.
Those who worked for Northern manufactures had jobs, some of which had been made possible by the existing protective US tariff. Northern manufacturers anticipated greater profits and probable future expansion of their businesses under the higher Morrill Tariff.
There is no question tariffs aided Northern manufacturers. But Northern consumers paid the same inflated price that Southern consumers did. So if there were more Northern consumers, and the population figures would indicate that there were, then how could the South effectively be paying the tariff?
Northern goods sold in the South would have to pay the same tariff to the South as that placed on European goods by the Confederate tariff. This would put much price and profit pressure on Northern manufacturers.
Perhaps. Perhaps not. A lot would depend on how much the Northern manufacturer sold to Southern consumers in the first place. If the bulk of his business was in the U.S. then it would ease the pain of modifying his prices for Southern consumers. He would also benefit by being closer and would enjoy lower transportation costs, insurance costs, and the like.
The South initially set their tariff the same as the then current US tariff, then about two weeks later the North passed the much higher Morrill Tariff for the US. Talk about shooting themselves in the foot!
And how was this shooting themselves in the foot?
That set up the two-tariff problem that prompted Northern newspapers to basically cry 'blockade the Southern ports', 'our pockets have been touched'. Northern import businesses started closing. The picture looked bleak for Northern tariff income.
Ridiculous. Imports destined for U.S. consumers had the Morill tariff applied in U.S. ports. Imports destined for Confederate consumers had tariffs applied at Confederate ports. One had no impact on the other.
Whatever percentage of the tariff had been paid by the South in the past, Lincoln certainly realized the problem the Northern economy and the government finances would be faced with because of the loss of the South and the two-tariff problem that the Republicans had created. As Lincoln said, "And what is to become of the revenue? I shall have no government -- no resources." [Link 1 and Link 2].
Yes, your compatriot FLT-bird is fond of that quote.