It is indeed discouraging to hear respected FReepers buying into the open border, corporate theology that America needs more unskilled/low-skilled workers. The facts say otherwise. There is a surplus of such workers, which is why wages have been stagnant or declined since 1969 using inflation adjusted dollars.
The Employment Situation of Immigrants and Natives in the First Quarter of 2018
While the unemployment rate has improved significantly in recent years, the official unemployment rate includes only those who have looked for a job in the last four weeks. It does not include those of working-age who have dropped out of the labor force entirely — neither working nor looking for work. (Figures do not include those in prison.) The labor force participation rate has not returned to pre-2007 recession levels and, relative to 2000, the rate looks even worse. Things are particularly bad for those without a college education. The problem is not confined to one area of the country; in virtually every state, labor force participation is lower in 2018 than in 2007 or 2000 among the less-educated.
Among Native-Born Americans:
The overall unemployment rate for natives in the first quarter of 2018 was 4.4 percent, much lower than at the peak of the Great Recession. However, the overall unemployment rate obscures the low labor force participation rate, especially among those without a college education.
There has been a long-term decline in the labor force participation rate of working-age (18 to 65) natives without a bachelor's degree. Only 70 percent of natives in this group were in the labor force in the first quarter of 2018; in 2007, before the recession, it was 73.8 percent, and in the first quarter of 2000 it was 76.1 percent.
The labor force participation rate of natives without a college degree has shown no meaningful improvement in recent years. For example, in the first quarter of 2012 it was actually slightly better than it was in the first quarter of 2018.
The decline in labor force participation among those without a bachelor's degree is even more profound when it is measured relative to those who are more educated.
In the first quarter of 2018, 70 percent of natives without a bachelor's degree were in the labor force, compared to 85.8 percent of those with a bachelor's degree — a 15.8 percentage-point difference. In the first quarter of 2007, the gap was 12.4 percentage points, and in the first quarter of 2000 the gap was 11.7 percentage points.
In 48 states plus the District of Columbia, labor force participation of natives without a college degree was lower in the first quarter of 2018 than the same quarter in 2007. The same is true comparing 2000 to 2018.
Among Immigrants:
Working-age immigrants without a college education also have not fared well since the recession. Unlike the labor force participation of natives, immigrants without a college education did improve their situation between 2000 and 2007. But it has not returned to 2007 levels. Also like natives, there has been no meaningful progress in the last few years.
In the first quarter of 2018, the labor force participation rate of immigrants (18 to 65) without a bachelor's degree was 71.9 percent, somewhat better than that of natives, but still below their rate of 73.4 percent in the first quarter of 2007.
Immigrants and Natives Not in the Labor Force:
In the first quarter of 2018, there were a total of 50.1 million immigrants and natives ages 18 to 65 not in the labor force, up from 43.3 million in 2007 and 37.2 million in 2000.
Of the 50.1 million currently not in the labor force, 39.9 million (80 percent) do not have a bachelor's degree.
The above figures do not include the unemployed, who are considered to be part of the labor force because, although they are not working, they are looking for work. There were almost seven million unemployed immigrants and natives in the first quarter of this year; more than three-fourths of the unemployed do not have a bachelor's degree.
Notable findings:
Of the 474 civilian occupations, only six are majority immigrant (legal and illegal). These six occupations account for 1 percent of the total U.S. workforce. Moreover, native-born Americans still comprise 46 percent of workers in these occupations.
There are no occupations in the United States in which a majority of workers are illegal immigrants.
Illegal immigrants work mostly in construction, cleaning, maintenance, food service, garment manufacturing, and agricultural occupations. However, the majority of workers even in these areas are either native-born or legal immigrants.
Only 4 percent of illegal immigrants and 2 percent of all immigrants do farm work. Immigrants (legal and illegal) do make up a large share of agricultural workers — accounting for half or more of some types of farm laborers — but all agricultural workers together constitute less than 1 percent of the American work force.
To be continued...
Agreed, kabar—good post!
One of the realities of the current world based economy is that the U.S. work force is over payed relative to the rest of the world.
In the Engineering field, while Red Dot Indians or Philipinoes or Red Chinese work for less, they do produce, not the same level of quality, but it is acceptable.
One way to look at it is the following. In the early 70s Japanese cars were coming to the U.S. People bought these cars for a number of reasons.
1. Better fuel economy
2.Less expensive to buy
3. Higher quality workmanship.
Now this last Item 3. does not apply to the Low cost center work forces in the far east but the quality of work in Poland or other East European countries is good.
The bottom line is that the U.S. "salaried" work force will need to take a pay cut of up to FORTY percent to be economical competitive with the Low Cost Centers.
As for the Unemployment rate - Liers figure and figures lie.
How many WORKING AGE people are out of the work force?
The labor force participation rate of natives without a college degree has shown no meaningful improvement in recent years. For example, in the first quarter of 2012 it was actually slightly better than it was in the first quarter of 2018.
This number is still extremely high
Illegal immigrants work mostly in construction, cleaning, maintenance, food service, garment manufacturing, and agricultural occupations. However, the majority of workers even in these areas are either native-born or legal immigrants.
Finding reasonably qualified Welders (a Well paying job and in many cases with overtime) who show up to work not on Drugs or alcohol is a BIG challenge
Simple answers easily understood tend to be the trouth
If all welfare was taken away and people from 18-65 able bodied either worked or didn’t what would the true unemployment rate be?
Well done Kabar. Was unaware of those stats which are extremely relevant.