Posted on 11/22/2018 12:51:34 PM PST by Kaslin
Had John C. Fremont not run as a Republican in 1856, there would probably would have been no Lincoln in 1860. The Republican Party formed in the 1850s with the collapse of the Whig Party. The central unifying issue Republicans shared was abolition of slavery. It unified people across political parties, bringing them together into something new.
In the early 1990s, fueled by a single billionaire's calls for reform, the Reform Party sprang up under H. Ross Perot. He won 18.9 percent of the popular vote. The Reform Party, unlike the Republicans in the 1800s, was one man's party, and it went nowhere. For the first time in more than a century, the country may finally be on the verge of doing what Perot could not do. The time could be right for a viable third party.
If you pay attention in Florida, Senator-elect Rick Scott got 45 percent of the Hispanic vote. Brian Kemp, the Governor-elect in Georgia, got 38 percent of the Hispanic vote. In fact, Republicans did far better with the Hispanic vote than the media would have anyone believe is possible. Also, consider black men. According to the adjusted exit polling, about 18 percent of black men voted Republican in Texas, up from 14 percent two years ago. In Wisconsin, the number skyrocketed to 21 percent from 8 percent two years ago.
The trend away from the Democrats by minority voters is almost entirely because of cultural issues. The Democrats' growing hostility to faith, conservative social values, etc. is a real Achilles heel for the party with minority voters -- particularly Hispanic voters.
Concurrent to that, the white suburbs fled the GOP. High-income white voters in the suburbs who have been reliably Republican have had enough of President Donald Trump. They want a new political home. Combine white suburban voters with black and Hispanic voters who will not go to the GOP because of Trump, but no longer feel at home in the Democratic Party, and there appears to be real room for a third party in the country now -- one that is viable, unlike the Libertarian or Green parties.
I suspect this all runs through the GOP, however. Put up someone in the 2020 Republican presidential primary against Trump running on these sorts of themes and the person probably cannot win -- but probably could start a third party movement as a sizable portion, though not a majority, of Republicans tired of President Trump leave their political home and make it an acceptable place for black and Hispanic voters.
The GOP would become a mostly white rural party. The Democrats would become a mostly wealthy, urban white party. This new party, call it the Federalists, would be a coalition of former Republicans and minority Democrats with a healthy addition of evangelicals, all of whom think the two parties have failed the country.
Such a move would probably not be successful in 2020. It would probably lead to Trump's defeat, thereby making remaining Republicans bitter toward the effort. But the data from the midterms show pretty clearly that the suburban Republicans and the socially conservative minority Democrats are all ready for a new political home. It would not be an immediate successful enterprise, but could potentially sustain itself, so long as it makes the party one of ideas and not one man's enterprise like the Reform Party of Ross Perot.
For those of us who are fiscally conservative, we'd also have to get used to the idea that this would not be a small government party, per se. But it could no doubt position itself as a fiscally responsible, free-market party, unlike either of the existing parties.
The GOP belongs to Donald Trump for the time being, and there is no reason for a primary challenge against him. But the midterm data all very compellingly suggest that if someone wanted to try a go at resetting the American political coalitions, now would be the time.
And Lincoln fired Fremont as one of his Generals because early in the Civil War Fremont wanted to make the thrust of the war to free the slaves and Lincoln did not want to fight a war to free slaves.
My guess is a third party of “centrists” would draw more from the Rats for the next 6 years. Trump’s support is welded to him. The wealthy donors of the Rats will kill to keep this from happening. This is just a NeverTrump wet dream.
Translation: This is the latest idea from the #NeverTrump clubhouse. Bill asked me to run it up the flagpole.
Translation: This is the latest idea from the #NeverTrump clubhouse. Bill asked me to run it up the flagpole.
So from now on the elections will go:
Democrat - 40%
Republican - 35%
Federalist - 25%
Unless the rules are changed to require majorities and not pluralities, I would be opposed. And the winner take all rule for electoral votes must be eliminated.
Ross Perot gave America the Clinton Crime Family.
Twice.
Ross Perot was a demonic RAT who stepped in under false pretences to prevent discontented conservatives from uniting against the establishment. Just about everything he did was destructive.
Totally disagree.
Most of the republicans that lost ran crappy campaigns. Karen Handel in Georgia is a prime example. The democrats were able to control the narrative. They made the election about health care...and pre-existing conditions. The republicans had no response.
Soros and the democrat money machine made sure the dems had plenty of money for advertisement and GOTV.
Throw in cheating and law suits and the dems were able to elect Pelosi as speaker of the house.
IMHO, if a third party is formed, it will be a disaster for the GOP.
“Brian Kemp, the Governor-elect in Georgia, got 38 percent of the Hispanic vote. In fact, Republicans did far better with the Hispanic vote than the media would have anyone believe is possible. Also, consider black men. According to the adjusted exit polling, about 18 percent of black men voted Republican in Texas, up from 14 percent two years ago. In Wisconsin, the number skyrocketed to 21 percent from 8 percent two years ago.”
So tell us why Kemp had trouble beating a Black Marxist Female in GA? Blacks are 13% of the country’s population. Where to they get the kind of support that would elect one of them President for two terms and to almost get two of them elected to governorships in GA and FL?
What trouble?
Think about Abrams proudly declaring that her longed-for “blue wave” would include the “documented and undocumented”. Kemp withstood the fraud, which was stronger than at any other time in history.
Disagree as above. Disaster for the Rats which is why it won’t happen.
Blacks make up 30+% of the population of Georgia, NOT 13%! In most southern states the Black population makes up 30% or more of the state’s population!
Blacks make up 30.5% of the population of Georgia as of the 2010 Census!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_(U.S._state)
Really stupid argument here by Erickson. He’s citing these figures to suggest that there are minority Democrats who are attracted to Kemp but turned off by Trump, but Kemp was a Trumplican all the way.
These #NeverTrumpers cannot find their way out of fantasy land. Yes, there is a small segment of country club Republicans who are turned off by Trump, who can be lured to vote Democrat by “moderate” Democrats who pretend to be independent of Schumer and Pelosi. But however prominent they are on the pages of the New York Times and Washington Post, in the voting booths, they are not that big of a deal.
But these supposedly culturally conservative minorities that the #NeverTrumpers have been talking about for decades, I really don’t think there’s a group outside of the country club Republicans mentioned above who are favorably inclined to the GOP but repelled by Trump. God-fearing, patriotic, traditionalist Americans support Trump. Period.
Hmmmm... Erick Erickson ... nothing to see here folks, move along ...
I believe there will be significant 3rd, 4th and maybe 5th party candidates.
“Blacks make up 30+% of the population of Georgia, NOT 13%! In most southern states the Black population makes up 30% or more of the state’s population!’
Yeah, I had forgotten that!
I absolutely agree. In Michigan, it was non stop statements about the healthcare and pre-existing conditions. The CIA chick was 24.7 on these issues and she had pictures with George Bush and Obama, eluding to she served under a Republican and Dem President. Stabenow had vets and farmers in her commercials and nothing negative was ran about James from her.
There was a real lack of TV commercials for all Repubs and Trump didn’t come at all to Michigan. It;s like they abandoned Michigan as they felt it was lost to Dems.
What cost us was all the Repubs retiring and/or resigning before their term. I believe this was on purpose, perhaps paid by the GOP to ensure they lost the house to hamstring the President. What cost us was crappy candidates who make stupid statements repeatedly. Then of course, I believe there was massive cheating with the provisional and absentee ballots to which very few Repubs even challenged the final votes.
Dems outspent, outraised the Repubs this election.
Losers have always claimed there is “room for a third party”, there simply isn’t. The third party would live up to it’s name in that it would always come in a distant third. The idea of Blacks leaving the democrats for some BS John Kasich party is particularly laughable.
I must also note that the vast majority of Northern Whigs became Republicans and were the core of the party, the GOP platform was the Northern conscience Whig platform.
Anyway, just look at Gary Johnson, he collapsed at the end, despite a majority of people hating both Trump and Clinton he only got 3%. He also just came in a poor third in a Senate race despite a weak Republican.
“For those of us who are fiscally conservative, we’d also have to get used to the idea that this would not be a small government party”
You REALLY hate Trump, eh cuck?
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