Democrats in red counties are more likely to turn out relative to 2016 than Democrats in blue counties. I'm not sure what this means.
Posted on 11/05/2018 6:15:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Totals for Florida early vote.
Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 62,471
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 87,160
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 24,689
At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 88,012
Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.
Ballots have not been counted yet.
Dan Smith: “Just a reminder, high school students in Florida who are planning on a Tuesday #WalkOut to vote must vote in their designated local precinct, which may be miles from their H.S. Logistically, not clear on how this is supposed to work.”
Details... Details... Details.
Desantis isn’t in trouble, it is Gillium’s campaign that is imploding. Desantis wins this.
Better you than me to read that...Thanks for the condensed version.
Gillium isn’t going to win, he probably has half of the Democrats voting against him.
Actually Heller is doing quite nicely and should win easily.
Means good news.
This could be good news just glancing at one county Sumter. Trump won 52,730 (68.3%) to 22,638 (29.3%). He obviously got many crossover Dems or won Indies decisively (one or the other). The ratio of R’s to D’s in Sumter is about 2:1 and he won by a greater percentage than that.
Schale: “Looking to Tuesday, there are about 2.7 million voters who voted in either the 2014 general election or the 2018 primary, but haven’t voted yet - with the vast majority of those being 2014 voters. If you break this down into tiers — there are 1.7 million voters who voted in the 2014 general election on Election Day who have yet to vote - and the GOP has about a 160K voter edge. If you take all the 2014 voters, the GOP has about a 200K voter advantage, and the overall universe grows to 2.4 million.”
There is a GOP slant in the voters who could vote on Election Day. If they show up, we win.
Heller has incumbency advantage. I think he’s fine.
Scott won by 1 point in 2014, but it was really a battle between two unpopular RINOs. Don’t think you can draw parallels. Either way, I think FL house seats are fine, probably will re-elect Nelson + elect Gillum.
That must be the silent half...is there such a thing as a silent democrat?
Only thing that has me worried is that we know 2016 had a large third party vote factor. I am not sure which way that would’ve split. I’m guessing it was majority NeverTrumpers voting for the libertarian, but who knows. Maybe I’ll make more graphs on my lunch break figuring out how that split by county.
Start with the obvious. Most of the obvious 2018 primary voters will vote (>90%) probably on both the D and R side. Voters coming home.
Those election day 2014 voters more than likely will also vote. This just confirms what electionsmith was saying earlier just looking at another subpopulation.
Through around 2:00 today, the in-person EV change as a result of Panhandle Monday is like 200.
Absentee ballots continue to be counted. No major change.
You’re on a roll. My sleep-deprived, over-caffeinated eyes cannot keep up.
I hear ya on caffeine and sleep. It’s a lot easier to put in the effort where every question I attempt to answer with data seems to be going “our way.”
Baris saying that his polling is showing a lot of white females are ticket splitting with Scott and Gillum.
This remains to be seen but not impossible...
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