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Posted on 11/05/2018 6:15:23 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Totals for Florida early vote.
Absentee Ballot (VBM) - REPs lead by 62,471
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 87,160
Combined Early voting - DEMs lead by 24,689
At this same time in 2016: DEMs lead of 88,012
Numbers represent ballots cast by party registration.
Ballots have not been counted yet.
However, we are still looking good. 2 days ago, the REP lead was 62k better than 2 years previously. Yesterday, the REP lead was 60k better than 2 years ago. Today, the REP lead is 63k better than 2 years ago.
By election day, 2016, DEMs had a lead of 96,450. They appear to be well short of that number this year.
GOP is on track to win Florida statewide races.
ping
Methos8 spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13UdXilkzGqvvdKBN9Vwe8er64JeycQbLxKGxFy9lTlE/edit#gid=210512823
Some panhandle counties are open today for early voting. Other counties closed. So REPs will net some votes today.
Does anyone know what the 2014 numbers are? That was during a midterm.
Comparing to 2014 isn’t valid. The turnout this year is more similar to a presidential election year.
If you want to compare to 2014, please look at yesterdays thread so we don’t go down that road again.
Thank You.
Thanks Speedy!
Some counties are lagging a bit with their reporting to the state, in our favor about a thousand votes or so.
As you mention there are a handful of panhandle counties open today for EV per governor’s order due to the hurricane. Not many votes there but may help us for another thousand or two.
Also counties will continue to update today for absentee ballots received. I doubt that moves the needle all that much but could swing a few thousand either way.
Isn’t Governor Scott allowing the NW counties in the Florida Panhandle (Hurricane Impacted) to remain open through today? If I am not mistaken, those heavily Republican selected counties will continue early voting through today. All other Florida Counties have completed their early voting activities!!
I hate to keep saying this but that year is pretty much irrelevant in this day and age.
McDonald gave turnout estimates of all states. He puts FL at 7.5 million (admits it’s a guess). I will go higher and say 7.8 so let’s see where we end up.
Thanks Speedy - this thread and my morning coffee go well together.
http://www.electproject.org/2018g
These GOP counties from what I noticed open a little later in the morning.
I pray you’re right. FL is the state that really worries me. I plan to retire there to be close to family in a few years.
11/05/18: REPS - 1,000,308, DEMs - 937,837, lead of 62,471 for REPs, 41.7% to 39.1%
11/07/16: REPs - 1,047,119, DEMs - 980,440 lead of 66,679 for REPs, 41.0% to 38.5%
VBM: 2 years ago, REPs lead by 2.5%. This year 2.6%.
Another sign this years election is similar to 2016 and not 2014.
Bottom Line....Floridian GOP voters and others that support the POTUS, Donald J. Trump endorsed ticket must get out and vote tomorrow, Tuesday, November 6, 2018. Every vote counts....your country is in great peril if the Democrats return to power. So....get up and off the couch or your favorite chair and head out to your local polling station and cast your precious and valuable votes for the entire Trump GOP Team...like the first thing in the morning, tomorrow!!! Do it, do it, do it!!! We (The Trumpie Team) must win!!!
Yes, the Panhandle counties are open for voting today due to the hurricane. It should make a few thousand uptick in the GOP vote. The good news out of this is that the Rs are ahead of where they were in 2016 with the combined early voting/absentee balloting. The bad news is that we don’t know how many Rs will cross over to vote for Nelson and Scott nor where the Independents lie. One factor not taken into account is that while Trump won Florida two years ago, there was the usual significant vote for the Green and Libertarian parties. They are not there this year; what happens to those voters in Florida??
68.7% of VBM ballots have been returned.
Voters still have today and tomorrow to get their VBM ballots in. So will probably end around 70%.
Florida doesn’t allow postmarked VBM ballots to be valid. I think they have to be at the county offices by election day. (going from memory on this).
Yes Bay county is in central time zone (if Google is to be believed) and has voting locations opened between 7a-7p local time, or 8a-8p ET.
600 total votes there so far today. Note that Gadsden (also EV today) which leans like 80% Dem has 900 total votes today.
Panhandle is very unlikely to move the needle today!
You’re right on that. The county websites state that clearly. No postmarked ballots. R’s have returned 73% of their ballots - I’m hoping we can push that to 80%.
I think the Green & Libertarians will either sit this one out, vote for Democrats or a few will vote for Republicans, I do not think they will have much effect on this election. we shall soon see.
You may have seen this from electionsmith:
In 2016, GOP voters tipped the election for Trump on Election Day.
As of this am, over 1.3m registered voters in FL have yet to vote, even though they’ve voted in the last 4 general elections.
51% of them are Republicans.
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