Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
Follow Read on Twitter
Some ground rules for the next two days.
1) I am not gonna hand hold a bunch of “Nattering nabobs of negativity.” There is simply no reason, right now, to feel down about ANYTHING.
2) If you have real evidence of something-—NOT A POLL-—fine. But don’t tug at my shirt tails with “muh exit polls.”
These are total crap, as I’ve explained to you before. Literally, Ds make these up to depress R turnout.
3) The Senate looks awesome and the House is on track.
4) The gov races look like they should: Rs crushing it in AZ, TX, will eke out NV, FL, OH, probably lose a couple of NE governorships, and MI, and could very well pick up OR.
5) I won’t lie: the House races are all very close. Yes, a sudden shift could have us lose by 5.
But an equally sudden shift could have us win and hold all but 8 seats net. These are all, almost every one, very close races and many will depend on indies.
6) @PPDNews especially has noticed in individual races a shift by indies to Rs, in some cases pretty dramatic.
7) He has not polled this nationally, but thinks it IS a national trend. If so, Rs stand to lose only 5-10 seats, while flipping 4-5.
8) In the last week, the #1 issue has become IMMIGRATION, which 100% is an R issue.
9) So, put on your big boy pants or panties, get a muffin and a cup of coffee, vote if you haven’t already, and don’t ping me with every goofball, douchenozzle, dicknipple hysterical rumor.
10) One last note: On election night tomorrow night . . .
10) contd. . . . You will know how things are going pretty early. There are probably 10-15 “in play” seats in the eastern time zone. If we lose every single one, we’re probably done.
But if they don’t call all of those early (esp. say FL26 and 27, VA10, Dave Brat, etc)
10) contd . . . Then you’ll know that we’ve likely held the House.
Yes, it would still be “possible” to lose the House even if we held FL26, 27, Brat, Comstock, and a couple of NY/NJ even PA races, but highly, highly unlikely.
The further west you go, the scarcer the D possible pickups are until you get to CA.
There, some 14 seats are up, but I think in worst case we only lose two, and in best case, none.
11) So, just warning, if you come DM-ing me with hysteria, I’m just gonna ignore.
I agree, the polling on some of these races is very old or essentially nonexistent.