Its my understanding that Tester always underperforms his polling... historically.
I believe, and have ALWAYS believed the ONLY red state democratic senator who has any chance of survival was and is Manchin in WV...
I do not think any other red state Democratic Senator has any shot of survival.
Obviously I will be watching all returns next Tuesday, but WV is the bellweather... if Manchin goes down, no Red State Democratic Senator will win re-election.
If the GOP had put up a better candidate in WV, Manchin would have zero chance of survival... sadly Morrissey is truly not ready for prime time and if he wins, then the Dems are looking at full on slaughter up and down the ticket nationally. Because the only way Morrissey wins is on the back of national momentum, not because of anything he’s done, and if the national momentum against the Dems is so strong it takes out Manchin in WV... it will be a DISASTROUS night for Dems in both chambers.
Just like FL in 2016 was the ONLY state of the swing states still in play on Election Night... WV is the ONLY red state Democrat I think is remotely in play this cycle.
“Obviously I will be watching all returns next Tuesday, but WV is the bellweather... if Manchin goes down, no Red State Democratic Senator will win re-election.”
Don’t disagree. But my bellwether state is Florida.
If DeSantis wins and Scott defeats Nelson and we hold our own in the US House there, I may be convinced that it’ll be a better evening than expected.
Mother McCaskill here in Missouri is another one. She needs to go. Seriously.