Any thoughts...
Yes. Historically, Dems have taken to early voting more than Republicans. As early voting becomes more established, Republicans may be doing it more than they had, making it hard to get a real bead on these things. Of course, this is much better than it going the other way!
First 2 days Dimm early vote margin with partial rurals 6736
First 2 days GOP absentee margin with partial rurals (2132)
First 2 days estimated GOP margin on missing rurals (3065)
First 2 days estimated actual Dimm margin including rurals 1539
Probably more than you wanted to know, but here is “The Dentist’s” analysis:
Average daily Dimm gain(1539 divided by 2) 770
First week estimated Dimm gains(770 times 7) 5390
Second week estimated Dimm gains(770 times 6 times 66%) 3080
13 day estimated Dimm gains(5390 plus 3080) 8470
2016 Dimm early voting, absentee, & mail in margin 47778
As you can see it appears the Dimms will fall around 40000 votes short of their 2016 margin if trends continue. Trump only lost the state in 2016 by 27202 votes so if these trends hold(I think the GOP will acrtually do better than this)
Rural numbers are good. Washoe isn’t good.