First 2 days Dimm early vote margin with partial rurals 6736
First 2 days GOP absentee margin with partial rurals (2132)
First 2 days estimated GOP margin on missing rurals (3065)
First 2 days estimated actual Dimm margin including rurals 1539
Probably more than you wanted to know, but here is “The Dentist’s” analysis:
Average daily Dimm gain(1539 divided by 2) 770
First week estimated Dimm gains(770 times 7) 5390
Second week estimated Dimm gains(770 times 6 times 66%) 3080
13 day estimated Dimm gains(5390 plus 3080) 8470
2016 Dimm early voting, absentee, & mail in margin 47778
As you can see it appears the Dimms will fall around 40000 votes short of their 2016 margin if trends continue. Trump only lost the state in 2016 by 27202 votes so if these trends hold(I think the GOP will acrtually do better than this)
Yes let’s circle back and see where we are after Friday. Current overall Dem advantage is 3800.
It would help if someone crunched numbers for the most competitive House districts.
Nate Silver says there’s an 86% chance the House will flip to the Rats. Of course, he’s been wrong before.
Its any one’s guess what actually happens next month.