This is as close as I could find to butt hurt
Posted on 10/23/2018 8:33:48 AM PDT by Proud White Trump Supporter
Total Dim votes mean nothing, when it is House races.
Many Dim dominant districts are very large population districts, like in the largest Northeat metro areas. Many GOP dominant districts are not so populated as those big city Dim districts. The only thing that is meaningful is district by district votes, not even total national “turnout” by party. The Dims votes in the big metro areas will be as big as they always are. Those votes don’t count in hundreds of districts across the country. Just look at the 2016 election map.
GOPers should not believe any news or any polls, bad or good, and should just be scared enough to go out to the polls like they are going to war.
And there was a 91% chance Herself was going to be the 45th President of the US.
And in fact, Herself DID win more votes than Trump, in the popular vote. But look at where the total margin came from - huge majorities in two states (New York and California) that Trump was not going to win anyway, while he was wooing and winning much of the rest of America.
The same mistake is being made here. Districts that are already “blue” and have little chance of turning, will still have overwhelming Democrat votes, in sum, probably more “total” votes than all the Republicans. But in districts that are “purple” or already “red”, the Republicans stand to win by varying margins, many of them, and while fewer total number of votes are counted for the Republicans, a greater number of districts will remain as or turn Republican than is now imagined.
But reading of the entrails of chickens is still a pretty tricky way of predicting anything.
More reason to get out and vote! Let’s prove him wrong again, just like 2016.
I think he made his name in 2012 by calling 49 states right a couple days before the actual voting.
This is as close as I could find to butt hurt
Keep up the good work LS. I’m a loyal Twitter follower and strongly believe the early independent vote will break for the Rs bigly. That will also hold true on election day as the Ds get hammered outside of urban districts.
Your insights are much more reliable than Nate Silver.
Blind Hope and daily prayers?
This is some seriously flawed forecasting. Crowd sizes matter... They did in 2016 and they do today. Obama can't get an arena to even look like it's filled... Trump has people standing in line outside begging for tickets.
Love that chart... Silver sure knows how to pick ‘em.
Even going by RCP, to get control, idiot dems would have to pick up 18 of the 30 tossups.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
THAT AIN’T GONNA HAPPEN!!
which is why RCP’s lower estimate is a pickup of 10 for the RATS(10 TO 41)
No, he had HRC at 71%. NYT had HRC at 92% and HuffPo @ 98%
He’s been somewhat anti-trump ever since the military transgender thing not too long after he took office.
Excuse me, 13 of the remaining 30 tossups.
Everyday I get more comfortable about us keeping the House.
Chance of winning He Said:
FiveThirtyEight
Hillary Clinton
71.4%
Donald Trump
28.6%
FiveThirtyEight
Matt is as Anti-Trump as they come?
Nate Nate Nate Silvers.
Nate Silvers.
Get it..Ground Hog Day.
Hmm so all the observable facts, like in 2016, say one thing, but some guy, with proven track record of being to the far Left of poltical reality says “no ignore what you see I know better” and all the usual suspects in “Conservative Inc” start running around crying “oh no we are doomed”.
Must be part of Soros’s payroll.
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