Posted on 10/23/2018 8:33:48 AM PDT by Proud White Trump Supporter
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Yep his call was 92% Clinton to win.
So.
Think it’s time for Nate to come to terms with the fact that his predictions suck because it’s obvious he desperately wants the Left to win and is putting his thumb on the scale to manufacture that outcome in every way he can.
Then when he’s completely wrong, he can point to the numbers and claim innocence. But of course he chooses which numbers are relevant based on his biases, so it’s not the numbers’ fault at all.
These things aren’t designed to measure attitudes.
They’re designed to CHANGE THEM.
Nate Silver was also. VERY HAPPY when HELLARY won the POTUS, because his prediction was right on the money!!!
In the past week I’ve received three phone calls from political pollsters. I just hang up as I’m too busy. I suspect most conservatives do the same thing. On the other hand, liberals just love to talk and talk.
And that’s why pollsters keep getting it wrong.
The Dems are getting desperate.
If this Nate is so wrong, they is the drudge siren on this?
Nate is all wrong on this, just as he failed to predict that Obama would win Indiana in 2008.
That’s why they call him Indiana Nate.
Didn’t he make his name because he was leaked some of Obama’s internals in ‘08?
Damn. Nate Silver had Georgia going Hillary.
He is a silly man.
He puts these gigantic odds on things, and then goes on television and says “Well if it goes the other way, don’t get mad at me, it’s just that you don’t understand how probability works.”
GOOD!
1. This may keep a few overconfident/somewhat apathetic Dims at home, practically making the accomplishment of this pipedream even less likely.
2. This is REALLY going to rev up the Leftist tear machine on November 7 - they will once again expect a YUUUUGE victory, and instead get beaten like a rug. Get ready for a schaedenfreude booster shot!
Here in NV I’m getting called every day, sometimes twice a day by pollsters. Once in a while I’ll take the call. In a fair sample, I would have no better chance of getting called than anyone else. With changing technology and changing demographics and lifestyles, polls suck worse, so they mix in secret sauce based on the LAST election and spit out a percentage, which is a moving target. Nate Silver rightly says that 84% doesn’t guarantee it will happen, just that it’s more likely to happen. If a pilot tells you “There’s an 84% chance you’ll arrive safely, so enjoy your flight!”, you get off that flight. This number will crash, just like it did last time. It’ll go down to 80%, then 70%, then quickly go down to 50/50 on the eve of the election.
... because drudge is a worthless @sswipe.
During election day 2016, it was hilarious how wonderboy natey kept adjusting that Hillary percentage downward.
Same thing is going to happen on Nov 6.
BTW, natey has the worst hair on a male THAT I HAVE EVER SEEN.
Pollsters should have to publish their accuracy by LAW.
How’s that workin’ out for ‘em?
We’ll see. What concerns me is l would assume after these people got it so wrong they would have figured out why they blew it and fixed it because if they are this wrong again what little credibility they have left will be gone.
For this reason l fear we may lose the House and welcome to the biggest sh*t show this country has ever seen.
His last name’s silver, but his predictions are talc.
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