D-43,504 (44.6%)
R-31,048 (31.8%)
I-22,328 (22.9%)
2016 BALLOT REQUESTS AS OF 10/24/16 FOR IA#1:
D-52,403 (45.0%)
R-35,770 (30.7%)
I-28,015 (24.0%)
These are equivalent points in the election cycles of 2016 and 2018. Blum(R) won in 2016 by 7.6% or about 29,500 votes. He has SOME room to spare not a lot. Having said that, this is a district the Dems really need in order to flip the house I believe. So compared to 2016, Dems down 0.4%, Reps up 1.1% and Indies down 1.1%.
OVerall slightly better than 2016. We will see if this holds for the next two weeks. I will post ballot RETURNS starting week of 29th.
Comments appreciated...
ping
Thanks for the update.
Eagles Up!
I appreciate the data the you and Larry are giving us
I think it looks promising
Something that might be interesting is the turnout in these prior races to gauge what’s happening Election Day. Any swing by either party would be consequential. I’m thinking of Ohio-12 Special when Dems matched 2016 general and we were 40%.
Got mine.
#1. You did a nice job of analyzing the information and what it means/could means.
Thanks.
Thank you so much for posting. Good luck to us all, in Iowa!
One thing that is unknown in all of these ballots is how many Dems are actually voting Republican versus GOP defections. I will speculate that the Dem defections will be much higher than the GOP ones adding up to even more Republican wins.
Thanks for the post !
the liberals all live in Iowa City. when the farmers come out to vote, it will be a huge Republican victory again. why do you think they cant pass legal pot here? its the farmers, its always the farmers!