Posted on 10/18/2018 2:06:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
...A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball in his new post.
...the Democrats in a worst-case scenario could be four seats shy of the needed 23 needed to install Rep. Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
Of course there are caveats, such as the impact of the huge influx of money to Democrats and President Trumps decision to campaign furiously through Election Day, but the analysis is a bit of a wet towel on polls and reports declaring a blue wave blowout election.
Nonetheless, he predicts a good night for Democrats.
Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor of Republicans, the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
The fact that anyone still listens to this cumquat proves how little some people have learned in the past 2 years.
I agree, but Sabato is still a massive tool.
BTTT.
He's like the rest of the media/punditocracy in that he's learned no lessons from the 2016 election.
I wish for a Blue Waterfall. Like when a toilet overflows
Apparently the idea of Hillary winning Texas actually existed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/25/us/hillary-clinton-texas.html
As LS has said, we are at the point now where polls are of little value. We have hundreds of thousands of ballots that have already been cast. Much better than samples of 500 people.
I will take a four seat win....
Anything short of a total ‘blue wave’ is an utter and complete failure by Democrats; the electorate tends to vote in the opposite party in the midterms (generally more motivated electorate upset about the loss, as well as putting the brakes on changes)
Anything less than a total House win and tying the Senate is failure. Abject and abysmal failure.
‘course the media will report anything as being a huge win for Democrats.
We need to put your post on a banner atop the Free Republic home page, I think.
Anthony Sabato Jr. or whoever you are, You ate fake news.
You are what you eat.
but how is he at off year house and senate elections.
Exactly right. Only one poll counts and it will be taken on November 6. VOTE!
His best case scenario at this date is they fall short by 4.....
......meaning the truth is RED WAVE COMING and they are lowering the expectation to preserve polling credibility.
I think if you read the polls from our people here you may find that theres agreement, that the Dimms will pick up seats, maybe in the teens but capture the House. I dont care if we maintain it by one vote.
Yes, many are saying that the Dimms will pick up House seats, but fall short of taking the House. So, they would have lost, falling short of their goal. I believe they will likely pick up 10-15, but fall short of the 23 they need. With us picking up Senate seats, it would be a winning election for the GOP if that occurs.
They also thought she had a chance in Kansas as well. This was based on some phony poll that had her 10 pts ahead among registered voters.
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