Posted on 10/18/2018 2:06:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
...“A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball in his new post.
...the Democrats in a worst-case scenario could be four seats shy of the needed 23 needed to install Rep. Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
Of course there are caveats, such as the impact of the huge influx of money to Democrats and President Trump’s decision to campaign furiously through Election Day, but the analysis is a bit of a wet towel on polls and reports declaring a blue wave blowout election.
Nonetheless, he predicts a good night for Democrats.
“Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor of Republicans, the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
The week before election day in 2016, I remember a smug Larry Sabato declaring Clinton was going to win the election for President absolutely no doubt. I think smug Sabato is going to be wrong this year.
In the 2016 campaign he made some anti-homo statements which upset Organized Faggotry® and the soccer mommies, squishy Wall Street donors and the NRCC bailed on him and left him to lose a close race.
“Not so much RIP USA yet, just another step towards Civil War 2.”
True. The people will have to re-negotiate the arrangement of their relationship vis a vis the corrupt stasi state. We the ‘governed’, revoke our consent.
Ladies and Gentleman,
Y’all need to be considering actual information, that which can be tied to real data.
Fortunately LS, a stalwart on this forum, has a band of merry number crunchers who have parsed the information you seek:
The summary is here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3697575/posts?page=49#49
The news is good, and seems to be getting better. Mr. Schweikart’s most important analysis is that the voting has already begun, and the trends along those lines are positive, more positive than perhaps one could have hoped for.
Anyway, The only LS with real data and not polling data is Larry Schwiekart.
Enjoy.
Yep. So really, the Dems have the House under control, no reason to rush out and vote or anything, especially if it’s a busy day down at the bong shop.
rallies
We have three competitive House races in NC Budd, Harris, and Holding
No, that is his WORST case scenario.
Garrett was too aggressively anti-gay for NJ. We should get his district back eventually but this is a bad year and the Democrat Gottheimer is playing both sides on Trump. He supported a bill funding the wall.
In the district where Frelingheuysen retired, the Republican Jay Webber is also aggressively anti-gay, sponsoring the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2014. That just doesn’t play well, he’s down 11 points in a district Trump carried.
Sabbath is Italian for arrogant a-hole.
“That won’t win the House for them! And we will win seats in the Senate! Sounds like they are backing off of the Blue Wave!”
indeed. a couple of weeks ago Sabato was 99.99999999999999999999999999999999% sure of a “blue wave” ...
Sabado can’t find his way home. There is no blue wave.
If Sabato says 4, then it must be that the Dims will be even more than 4 too few.
Now subtract all the seats the Republicans are going to flip from blue to Red. “Slip Sliding Away”
In 2016 he got five key States wrong and got the end result wrong.
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/
Wrong on Florida.
Wrong on Pennsylvania.
Wrong on Michigan.
Wrong on North Carolina.
Wrong on Wisconsin.
He doesn’t seem very credible?
A few days ago he said republicans would lose the house by 30+ seats. He’s changed quickly. Where’s the blue tsanami????? Lol.
No, just another sh*t thrower watching the wall. He has been consistently wrong for years, which makes his credentials as a pollster ‘solid’. What is the purpose of public polls anyway? The educate? Hardly. They are used to support an opinion, whatever it is. ABSP.
Yes. Scmuck Sabato has started to hedge.
Sabato will be right eventually.
If even a partisan hack like Sabato is saying this, isn’t that good news?
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