Posted on 10/18/2018 2:06:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
...A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball in his new post.
...the Democrats in a worst-case scenario could be four seats shy of the needed 23 needed to install Rep. Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
Of course there are caveats, such as the impact of the huge influx of money to Democrats and President Trumps decision to campaign furiously through Election Day, but the analysis is a bit of a wet towel on polls and reports declaring a blue wave blowout election.
Nonetheless, he predicts a good night for Democrats.
Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor of Republicans, the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
If they don’t take the House and lose seats in the Senate, even the MSM would have to admit to it being a loss.
I think they’ll lose seats in both houses. As for polls, figures can lie and liars can figure. It’s happened before that the polls have been dead wrong, and 2016 was not the first time.
Or is it? Many of the polls are push-polls, and are of the exact same make-up that said Hillary was safely ahead....
He’s like a weatherman, if he’s right 50% of the time he thinks he’s good.
Consider the wave of NYT/Siena polls that appeared to be bad news yesterday:
In some cases they made 60,000 calls (!) to get just 300 respondents. Now, 300 respondents, esp if you have a sample off by 5 points, means that just a handful of people the “wrong way” would dramatically reshape the results.
The margin error should be about 20%.
Sabato is not a RINO. He’s a dyed in the wool democrat.
[ Not to panic anyone, but if the dems win anything its RIP U.S.A. ]
Correct you are. The stakes couldn’t be higher before 2020.
[And the day before the election, Larry Sabatos Crystal Ball prophesied 322 electoral votes for Clinton and 216 for Trump.]
That’s an amazing Crystal Ball. It just got the names backwards. And the numbers were slightly off.
So, he was close. Except for the wrong party winning.
Democrat is ALWAYS the WRONG PARTY.
I still say Republicans will gain 4 in the Senate and 2 in the House.
Thanks for the reminder!
The trend is our friend: 1) Blue wave, Democrats taking House and Senate; 2) Demos may not take Senate, but the House is in the bag; 3) Demos will not take the Senate, but probably have the House; 4) Demos will not take the Senate and will fall just shy of the House.
We still have two weeks until election day. It'll be a red wave yet!
Demos MUST have 90%+ of the black vote or they're done for as a party. Good night, the party's over. Click here.
This is libtard porn.
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/
he thought Feingold would win, too.
What a tool.
LOL.
People still pay attention to him?
On election eve, he said Hillary would win FL, NC, MI, WI and PA.
And that's just a small sample of how he's usually wrong, always for the Democrats.
Here in NH, it is a toss up. Carol Shea Porter is not running for re-election. For the Democrats, we have Chris Pappas (D) vs. Eddie Edwards (R). Pappas is 38 and the son of the owners of a very good chicken restaurant in Manchester. He went to Harvard and has been a state rep and on the executive council. He is openly gay which may make him the first person elected to congress that is openly gay. Eddie Edwards is a navy veteran and graduate of the FBI National Academy in Quantico, Virginia. He was the chief of police for a town in NH. He is married (to a woman) and has two kids. Oh and btw, he is black. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1fJBqpuF6A I don’t see that as “likely Democratic”. Annie Kuster has been in congress off and on for years. She lost to a guy that was later found to have been corrupt with campaign finances. She faces Steve Negron - airforce veteran, small businessman, state rep. People in NH are fed up with DC politics and view Kuster as just a rubber stamp for whatever the Democrat leadership wants. Watch this on election night. Could be a +2 for the Republicans...
Sure a lot of things going on.
FReepmail
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