[LS]

Two major problems with the wishcasting that the enthusiasm will dissipate by election day.

1) Absentee ballots have already gone out in many states and will be coming in this week. In AZ, 85% of the ballots were absentee or early!

2) Republicans finally saw the key link between Trump and Congress/Senate.

Now, since I sent out my circular to my ping list yesterday (?) a number of very good things have happened.

First, Dino Rossi (a must have seat for Ds if they want to take the House) is up to a 10 point lead in WA8.

Second, AZ GOP told me they are putting more money into Marquez-Peterson’s race vs. Kirkpatrick in McSally’s old district.

THIS IS A DIRECT CONTRADICTION OF A LIE RUN IN THE AZ REPUBLIC SAYING THEY HAD PULLED MONEY. Moreover, the Repulsive story says Peterson trailing in a poll, but never gives details.

Third, a NE seat thought a “must have” for Ds to take the House has the R up.

Fourth, McGloughlin Group polling, which is a GOP firm, has Patrick Morrissey within one of Joe Manchin. A little skeptical of an “internal” poll, but if it’s even within two, with a visit to Charleston in the final days, Trump can win this for the GOP.

Fifth, Will Hurd is now safe in his TX district, meaning Ds will have no flips at all in TX, NC, or OH. Hearing that Claudia Tenney has stabilized in NY, and may be ok. Barbara Comstock in VA likewise has an internal poll out showing her up one. Big. She was down 12.

Ds have mounted a big registration drive in AZ since July, and cut the GOP registration edge from 150,000 to 107,000 in August. Could be lower by now, but AZ Sec State doesn’t have data up. If it stabilizes at 100,000, any statewide R has to win indies 3:2 to have a shot. Won’t happen. Ducey is blowing out Garcia by 20+, and now that McSally is up 6 in latest polling, it puts a lot of pressure in CD1, CD2, and CD9 democrats.

Oh, and Trump just named eight more judges, including three to circuit courts of which two are to the Ninth Circus.

[ExTexasRedhead]

The WalkAway Campaign is growing. My early voting ballot will be mailed in about three hours.

Interesting video at the link below of Strata talking about the growing success of his campaign.

http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=139234

[GOPJ]

Barbara Comstock in VA likewise has an internal poll out showing her up one. Big. She was down 12.

That's telling for all other races in the country too - the Kavanaugh effect... if Kavanaugh was the democrat's "October Surprise" - they're hurting.

[nikos1121]

This idea that during midterms the party in power loses, is hogwash.

I don’t recall that lazy POS George Bush campaigning like Trump is. Trump, to be sure is riding a stream of being popular, but he out works everyone, and he energizes the people out there running.

Don’t tell me it has to do with anything but getting the people out to vote. Trump is doing that.

I am very excited. Early voting starts in GA Monday.

Looks to me that we’ll lose some seats in congress, net, but gain in the Senate. I’m crossing my fingers, as wouldn’t be delightful if we did really well in ALL of the Senate races? Maybe not winning them all but coming close?

I’m seeing a pickup of 4 now. 6 would be unbelievable, but possible.

[Alas Babylon!]

Hey Larry, On your post you said:

If it stabilizes at 100,000, any statewide R has to win indies 3:2 to have a shot.

Shouldn't that be:

If it stabilizes at 100,000, any statewide R democrat has to win indies 3:2 to have a shot. ?

[laplata]

Thanks, Larry. Encouraging.

All things considered, the Dems are in trouble.

[entropy12]

Thanks Larry, for the detailed prognostications!

[karnage]

All good news. But: don’t let it get around. Dems need to be complacent; MAGA voters need to be energized!

[Political Junkie Too]

Fifth, Will Hurd is now safe in his TX district, meaning Ds will have no flips at all in TX...

I've been watching the TX-7 race between Culberson (R, incumbent) and Fletcher (D). RCP has one poll from September 14-18 by the NYT/Sienna with Culberson+3 (48-45).

Democrats are hitting this district hard with a stealth candidate in Fletcher. She's running a "reach across the aisle, work with both parties..." candidate who doesn't mention her party in her ads.

I'm particularly concerned because this is the wealthiest district in Houston, containing Westheimer Road, the Memorial district, River Oaks, West University Place (where that councilwoman yelled obscenities at young girls wearing MAGA shirts on a line at a cookie shop), and the “energy corridor” up towards Jersey Village and Cypress. This district would be a good "get" for Pelosi.

Have you heard anything more about TX-7?

-PJ

[weston]

Thanks for that positive report. Here in Oregon there will be no change in the house. 4 Dems and 1 Republican will return. But we have a very good chance of picking up a Governorship. Brown(D) is so horrible, her own party can’t stand her. With the House races basically not contested, it’s possible Dems will not be energized to vote here. Brown is only at +2. A statistical tie.

[The Westerner]

Excellent news about two new Judges in the 9th Circuit!

[nutmeg]

Great info as always, FRiend... Keep it coming!

Loved your article in Big League Politics, too. :-)

[Taxman]

Thanks for the post, Larry.

My comment: I sure do hope the Republicans are “woke up!”

WE MUST PREVAIL ON NOVEMBER 6!