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Major Hurricane Michael Live Thread II
NHC/NOAA ^ | 9 October 2018 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 10/09/2018 4:49:06 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Major Hurricane Michael is churning toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast. Florida Governor Rick Scott declared a state of emergency Monday for 35 counties with mandatory coastal evacuations in the FL Panhandle. 1,250 National Guard troops are aiding the process and more than 4,000 more placed on standby.

FEMA is already on the ground in Florida; other federal agencies are also preparing to assist people in the storm's path.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey on Monday declared a state of emergency for the entire state. Georgia Governor Nathan Deal issued a state of emergency for 92 counties ahead of Hurricane Michael landfall.

Meanwhile, Tallahassee city government (Andrew Gillum, Mayor & D'Rat FL Gubernatorial candidate) offices are "closed until further notice." Tallahassee International Airport ‏is suspending commercial flight activity as 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday but expects to resume activity on Thursday.

The U.S. military moved its aircraft from the Panhandle on Monday. Roughly 50 F-22 stealth fighter jets — valued around $150 million each — have been relocated from the Tyndall Air Force Base, while the U.S. Navy said it is moving all its training aircraft from Pensacola.

Energy Production The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) on Tuesday estimated that around 726 MMcf/d (28.4%) of natural gas production and 670,831 b/d (39.5%) of oil production in the GOM had been shut in ahead of the storm.

As of midday Tuesday, 75 platforms and three rigs had been evacuated, while eight dynamically positioned rigs had been moved out of the storm’s path as a precaution, according to BSEE.

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Channels

Public Advisories

NHC Discussions


NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar New Orleans, LA
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Mobile AL/Pensacola FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Panama City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Tallahassee, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Tampa Bay, FL

Hurricane Michael Thread I


TOPICS: Breaking News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: gorebullwarming; hurricane; hurricanemichael; localnews; michael; nautinurse; tropical
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To: abb
0500 NHC Discussion:
The worst storm surge is expected between Tyndall Air Force Base
and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible.

Dangerous hurricane-force winds will also extend well inland across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.


201 posted on 10/10/2018 2:40:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Two-door Ford suffered unrepairable damage after a head-on collision with facts & truth.)
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To: Reno89519
Puerto Rico may not be the best of examples. I had an aide worker who spent lots of time in puerto rico in my store last week who told me that approximately half the aid that fema sent to the island was stolen and re sold by unscrupulous residents of puerto rico.

The teamsters who trucked the stuff around demanded an extra $50 to haul the stuff and then demanded that they run alone with no one watching what they do. Pretty obvious what was going on there.

202 posted on 10/10/2018 2:53:19 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: NautiNurse

G’morning. I am in awe of this storm, and I agree the geography of the whole area will be altered. This is sobering to see and I pray people in evac zones have left.


203 posted on 10/10/2018 2:56:04 AM PDT by SE Mom (Screaming Eagle mom)
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To: rodguy911
Buoy 42039:


204 posted on 10/10/2018 2:56:30 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Two-door Ford suffered unrepairable damage after a head-on collision with facts & truth.)
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To: SE Mom

Amen! Hope you have a good day at work. Check in when you are able.


205 posted on 10/10/2018 2:57:39 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Two-door Ford suffered unrepairable damage after a head-on collision with facts & truth.)
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To: kristinn
We had a cat4 last year here in the Keys and from Islamorada to just north of Key West the damage was extensive. So bad "Big Pine key will be three or four years recovering if they are allowed to rebuild." Houses that had more than 50% of damage are not allowed to rebuild.

We have 1,300 hotel rooms in Islamorada. We still have only a little more than half ready for occupancy.THey are our economy.

Every day from 6-9 am we have a steady stream of const. workers heading to the middle and lower keys from the mainland to go to work. Few know how bad it was down here.

]If you are in the danger zone in the panhandle get the hell out of harms way or you may not be here after the storm.

206 posted on 10/10/2018 3:01:33 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: rodguy911

Sickening that thieves stole relief supplies in Puerto Rico. Sounds like Venezuela.


207 posted on 10/10/2018 3:01:39 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Two-door Ford suffered unrepairable damage after a head-on collision with facts & truth.)
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To: rodguy911

Difficult to comprehend up to 15 ft. storm surge from Tyndall AFB all the way around Big Bend.


208 posted on 10/10/2018 3:06:48 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Two-door Ford suffered unrepairable damage after a head-on collision with facts & truth.)
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To: Paul R.

If the beach road is taken out which could easily happen its going to be tough sledding around the panhandle. I know the area well traveled it extensively since 1978.


209 posted on 10/10/2018 3:16:42 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: NautiNurse

The only thing that will be a bit of a mixed blessing is the forward speed which is 13 mph. but on the other side add 13 and 140 and you get 153 or near cat five velocity so its a mixed blessing.If the storm does not linger it will help.


210 posted on 10/10/2018 3:19:28 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: Paul R.

This storm is booking in two days its back over the water again,amazing.


211 posted on 10/10/2018 3:20:41 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: rodguy911

bump


212 posted on 10/10/2018 3:23:52 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Ruth Bader Ginsburg doctor is a taxidermist.)
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To: rodguy911

In this case, the forward speed 13 mph also means hurricane force winds will be maintained further inland. Tropical storm winds intact as the storm traverses the Carolinas.


213 posted on 10/10/2018 3:24:08 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Two-door Ford suffered unrepairable damage after a head-on collision with facts & truth.)
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To: Paul R.

http://myforecast.co/bin/tide.m?city=13274&metric=true&tideLocationID=null

Here’s the wind tide forecast for mexico beach. Looks like a high around 3pm and again around 2 am around three feet.add on a surge of ten and waves of who knows what and you have disaster.


214 posted on 10/10/2018 3:26:14 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: NautiNurse

Yeah I saw that, bad news coming north.


215 posted on 10/10/2018 3:27:49 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: NautiNurse

Not a far fetched example hope it never becomes a state.


216 posted on 10/10/2018 3:28:30 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: NautiNurse
Difficult to comprehend up to 15 ft. storm surge from Tyndall AFB all the way around Big Bend.

then add a three foot tide and a wave of who knows how big and you have a diaster.In many areas the beach road is not equipped to sustain all that could be really bad up there.

217 posted on 10/10/2018 3:30:20 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: NautiNurse

Amazing the power this thing has even when it loses the warm water for food.


218 posted on 10/10/2018 3:31:23 AM PDT by rodguy911 (Home of the free because of the brave! MAGA!!)
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To: rodguy911
The news just keeps getting worse. Landfall with storm surge near high tide. Latest diameter of the eye is 16 miles, with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 45 miles. This results in hurricane wind field over 100 miles wide.

Historically, a storm wind field expands at landfall.

219 posted on 10/10/2018 3:39:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Two-door Ford suffered unrepairable damage after a head-on collision with facts & truth.)
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To: NautiNurse
Florida nursing homes prep for power outages as Hurricane Michael nears

Talks about compliance with the new generator law.

220 posted on 10/10/2018 3:48:09 AM PDT by mewzilla (Has the FBI been spying on members of Congress?)
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