Posted on 10/04/2018 10:43:47 AM PDT by SMGFan
For the first time this cycle, the senators on the list of most vulnerable incumbents have changed.
Operatives in both parties agree Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania are favored to win re-election even though they are running in states that backed President Donald Trump in 2016. Texas Republican Ted Cruz and New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez replace them on the list.
Red-state Democrats still dominate, with North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp remaining in the top spot. Nevada Republican Dean Heller is still the second-most vulnerable incumbent with the wind at Democrats backs this midterm.
Strategists on both sides say its too early to know how the battle over Trumps Supreme Court pick Brett Kavanaugh could shake up these Senate races. His nomination hangs in the balance after Christine Blasey Fords testimony last week that he sexually assaulted her when they were in high school.
(Excerpt) Read more at rollcall.com ...
I would be not be surprised by breaking even in the Senate mid terms. Lose Arizona and Nevada and pick up Florida and North Dakota. The power of incumbency is real.
“Not enough to overcome nearly four-decades of inertia for anything named Casey. What morons are running this campaign?”
I’m baffled ... the Republicans are supposed to be sitting on all sorts of cash. There are only two things I can think of :
1> Keeping the House is costing A LOT!
2> They’ll start a 4 week blitz kind of thing after the Kavanaugh debacle that was brought on by the scummy Rats.
They’re letting a golden opportunity slip through their fingers ... Trump showed them how to win in PA, OH, MI, and WI ... they seem to be comfortable with earning just enough to get by ... what a shame.
Marsha Blackburn looks reasonably ahead in Tennessee.
Last poll I saw had McSally trailing by two in Arizona. Hopefully she can pull ahead.
Baldwin leads Vukmir by two in Wisconsin. I hope she can pull ahead but I dunno. It will be tight.
I see three pretty sure things in ND and Florida and Tennessee, and a whole bunch of tossups. Only two of those tossups -AZ and NV are defending Republican seats.
Id guess the Republicans gain 4 seats in total.
Dont rule out New Jersey. Everybody is sick of Gov. Phil Murphy already.
Hes actually worse than Christie.
Voters know Menendez diddles little girls and boys in his buddys mansion in the Dominican Republic. Only a New Jersey jury could acquit that rotting carcass.
Cruz will win by 10+%.
Here in Texas, a few people have “Beto” signs in their front yard. Well, on the Facebook neighborhood pages, they are being mocked big time. Fun to watch too.
In fact, down the street around the corner, on Cottonwood Springs in The Colony, Texas, one house has a Beto sign, the next door house has a Cruz sign. I keep telling my wife, I want to give the thumbs up to the Cruz people but they haven’t been outside. Neither has the Beto house people. I’m betting the Beto neighbors are A holes, the Cruz neighbors are nice people.
1. Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D.
2. Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev.
3. Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.
4. Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind.
5. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla.
7. Sen. Joe Manchin III, D-W. Va.
8. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis.
9. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas
10. Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J.
Listed in order of the most likely seats to switch. Roll Call has Menendez a stronger lock than Cruz to win. I wouldn't think that way but it's their rag.
8 Dems and 2 Pubbies. Looks like a golden opportunity this year for the Pubs.
“The power of incumbency is real.”
I guess you mean overall, except for Nevada & ND & FL. Reid turned Nevada Democrat?
What's even funnier is reading Hispanic responses. You wouldn't believe how many didn't KNOW that Robert Francis has absolutely NO Hispanic blood.
And just because I think the point should be driven home, I always add the comment that not only does Robert Francis O'Rourke have no claim to anything Hispanic, but he beat out a TRUE Hispanic, Silvestre Reyes, that had served his country through the military, border patrol and in the Austin capitol. I end it with how ironic it is that the Hispanic community would reward an Irishman for taking down one of them by taking out ANOTHER Hispanic, Ted Cruz.
Since political neophytes have been brainwashed by the Socialists for decades, that every vote is all about color, sex, or financial status........we should be using it against them.
The only way Cruz gets beat is if there’s a blue wave of illegal illegal alien votes. Keep your eye on the border counties and the metropolitan areas.
“I think Baldwins gonna carry Tennessee.”
Marsha Blackburn...Baldbrain is Wisconsin.
PDJT is making a swing through southern MO in the near future to try and drag him across the finish line. Unfortunately, there are a lot of LIVs in MO that see Auntie Claire's ads and take what they say as gospel; mainly becasue they are on TV and a Dem would NEVER lie. My feeling is that it's going to be a close run thing, no matter which way it pans out.
Republicans just picked up a border county that has gone democrat for 139 years!!!
Cruz committed suicide with his initial antinTrump position. Had he been smart he would have given Trump a chance before running his mouth.
I would expect such garbage from most politicians, but he was being promoted as a "constitutional law expert".
Last local report in Ft Worth.........Cruz up 9.
Cruz is about as vulnerable as a platoon of Abrahams tanks!
Not the whole state, just Clark County in southern NV. Look at the 2016 county map. Whole dang state is Red, Red, Red.... Except Vegas blue.
Paul Ryan’s hard work attacking Republicans has doomed WI
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