Posted on 10/02/2018 5:20:35 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
I’m talking about the open seat that Lamb is leaving, PA-14, 63% Trump. The Republican nominee State Senator Guy Reschenthaler is certain to beat rat Bibiana Boerio and that will technically be a pickup. (Though possibly offset by Lamb beating Rothfus in the new PA-17, which Trump only won by 2.5 or so points)
IMHO, the rats have made a fatal error. They have awakened those who were still “sleeping” and put in them a terrible rrsolve!
Heidi already announced NO right after the ford hearings were done.. so did Donnelly, but he walked it back 2 days later... did Heidi walk her no back too?
Manchin was always a yes, and of the three he is the only one who didn’t say publicly what he was going to do.
Heidi has lost 8+ points since the ford hearing ended.
Manchin was IMHO the most likely red state D to survive, but I don’t think he was going to even before Kavanaugh fiasco. But if he votes no, he knows he’s done.
So he won’t announce yes, because he can’t he the 50th vote. No democrat can be... so once it’s clear the republicans have 50 votes Manchin will vote yes as will a few other Dems.
Kavanaugh confirmed with 52-55 votes.
The red state Dems were all likely toast even without Kavanaugh... the most likely of the bunch to survive was Manchin, and honestly don’t think he would have.
Manchin has ALWAYS been a yes on Kavanaugh, though he hasn’t publicly said one way or another... he knows he has zero chance at re-election if he votes no...but he also can’t be the vote that gives Kavanaugh 50 either so, until there are 50 on the board he won’t declare but when th vote counts he’ll go yes as will a few other Dems. This has always been a 52-55 vote to confirm outcome.. as long as the GOP puts up 50... nothing in the whole Ford fiasco changed the end outcome for the confirmation vote...
Reports were after the ford hearing the Heidi and Donnelly both said No.. Donnelly walked back to a maybe in less than 48 hours.. never heard anything about Heidi walking back her no.. but her polling is Done 8+ points since the ford hearing ended.
Even IF they vote yes, they are toast.. the damage is done. I would have said Manchin might eek it out in WV, prior to the Kavanaugh circus, but the Dems despicable behavior during it slammed that door shut regardless of how he votes.
We discussed it a while ago, I have always seen the fall as the GOP 6+ in the Senate after the midterms and if the winds blow just right they could be up double digits. The Kavanaugh fiasco definitely has put the winds damn near close to”just right”
Sadly the GOP’s incompetent messaging in the upper Midwest, likely won’t win them a single sentat seat in the states Trump won, even with the Kavanaugh mess.. all are down 11-18 points running campaigns with messaging that never will sell. PA18 and OH12 all over again. They should handily be gaining 2 at least instead they will goose egg here. iF they fix their messaging from small ball nonsense with Kavanaugh at their back they may manage to pull something out.. but given they refuse to learn that lesson after PA18 and OH12 I doubt highly they will change now.
MN is a likely pick up post Kavanaugh... and that’s the only state beside IL Trump lost... shameful and despicable GOP! When will you wake up.
However Kavanaugh will probably save a few congressional districts up this way.. pre Kavanaugh I expected GOP to lose 10 districts or possibly more in the upper Midwest alone...post Kavanaugh they will still lose seats here but not that many.
The Kavanaugh circus has closed any chance at the Dems retaking the house, and I would say looking at even money or better than the GOP gains house seats.
Kavanaugh did finally engage and enrage the GOP base.. which evaporated the Dem enthusiasm advantage... but more importantly it engaged and enraged the independents, non traditional MAGA voters and cross overs... and that is what is going to Trounce the Dems.
This isn’t a RED wave coming. It a DECENCY wave.. those voters aren’t suddenly Red, but they are going to punish the blue for their despicable behaviorI espect a 2-1 break to the GOP in that group.
The only thing that changes the election from being a disaster for the Dems would be if the GOP after all this failed to put up 50 and he isn’t confirmed.. then you will that anger be directed at the GOP as well. I don’t see that happening, but politics are politics.
Personally if for some reason 2 GOP Senators do betray the vote to confirm, Trump should just publicly announce he will wait until the new senate is seated and submit him again... I have no problem making the fall election a referendum on the court... no doubt the GOP will win more than enough seats so that Murkowski and Collins can’t mess it up again... and flake will be gone.
However with that said, I fully expect Kavanaugh confirmed 52-55 votes.
They have awoken a sleeping giant and filled him with Terrible resolve...
Dems took an almost certain retake of the house and slammed it shut...
Lamb is taking PA17... the GOP isn’t even fighting for it.. Lamb is still riding high enthusiasm from Dems from his win earlier this year. I bet you half the district couldn’t even name you his oponent.
Lamb is crushing Rothfus.. just like Wolf is crushing Wagner and Casey is Crushing Barletta... the GOP is abjectly incompetent when it comes to offering a winning message on the Upper Midwest...
PA18 and OH 12 all over the upper Midwest next month! Not a single senate race is in play in the states Trump won... all are down 11-18 points. The Kavanaugh bump will end up making some of those end up not looking as embarrassing at the end of the day, with the messaging the GOP incists on using, don’t see any of them being a win and that’s shameful. Trump showed you how to win here and you just ignore it all.
The only bright spot is MN. When the Kavanaugh bounce shows up in the polls there it will be in the margin of error and. May even have the GOP up. that is the sole bright spot in this area... and that’s a testament to the utter incompetence and frankly electoral malpractice of the GOP in the upper mid west.
Too gloomy, but in general accurate that in the upper midwest, this is a decency wave.
1) We’ll get +2 house seats in MN and the AG spot. My MN people are still optimistic that Housaely will win and that we still may pull out the third MN flip.
2) OH18 isn’t going anywhere. We won’t lose any seats in OH and Bishop is now safe in MI.
3) Guess you didn’t see my continued discussions of OH voter registration. “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” did an amazing study based on their 100% correct (well, actually they were LOW for TRUMP) in 2016. What they found was that OH SecState has a registered voter advantage of 600,000 Rs . . . except there were also a crapload of “unaffiliated” voters. “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant” used historical voting methodology to go back into an entire (large) swing county to figure out who these people really were. In 2016, they predicted this county would be a draw at best (Ds couldn’t win without it). In fact, Trump won it by a good margin.
They have continued that analysis this year and found that once the “unaffiliateds” were properly assigned, OH had a REAL voter difference of +300,000 Rs with only 2000 “U”s that they couldn’t assign. In other words, it’s damn near impossible for an R statewide to lose. DeWine & Renacci will win OH. Balderson is considered safe by “Ohio Wan” and “The Accountant,” and Chabot is totally safe.
4) Redistricting will cost us 3 seats in PA, but there is some unease now among Ds regarding Lambie Pie’s seat. Remember, even though Trump won PA by a mere 40,000 votes or so (can’t remember the post recount total), Ds still have a REAL 300,000 vote advantage.
5) The problem in MI is that James wasn’t ready. He didn’t have enough name recognition and NO “black Republican” will step in and seize the black community. Our best chance for a senate seat there was Kid Rock, who on the basis of his celebrity and literal adoration in MI would have walked into that seat. I know, hard for traditionalists to swallow.
6) Right now, Manchin is a draw. Even with a yes vote on Judge K, he may lose.
7) Heitkamp is a different issue: she’s a “no” because she’s already toast and has no reason to burn bridges with the D party.
8) We’ll hold both key IL seats.
9) WI is a puzzle. Some say it’s close, one poll has Walker up and Vukmir close, two have them down, one has Vukmir down big. But as I recall, polls there ALWAYS have Walker down.
10) The state that baffles me is MT. How in the hell Testicles can stay in office is beyond me, especially with a “no” on Judge K. Richard Baris has not polled MT, but tells me that Testicles ALWAYS “overpolls.” We’ll see. Gianforte is up in all polls, though closer in some.
11) I totally agree with your recommendation about what to do if Judge K vote fails, but I don’t think it will.
Sources tell me Manchin is a “yes” but really doesn’t want it “out there.” It seems (if anyone can translate Susan Collins’s whining) that she is a yes. That would be a tie, and Pence makes it Justice K.
A source also told me, though, that a couple of nights ago Yertle had a “come to Jesus” meeting with the Three Cuckateers, telling Flakey he would never work ANYWHERE in town again if he voted no, including as a lobbyist and that Yertle would see to it; telling Collins she would be finished and he would make sure she didn’t become governor; and telling MurCowSki that he “had a long memory” and would primary her and ensure she never got reelected. This comes from a pretty good source, so I have to think all three are a yes now. If that happens, watch for “heroic” Joe Donnelly to be a “yes.”
I think we agree more than we disagree, but I just don’t see any good news in the upper Midwest in the Senate. The GOP simply refuses to recognize you don’t run a campaign targeting just your base in states where your base is the historic minority.. particularly in a year where your opponents are as motivated as the D’s are this year.
The only bright spot I see is in MN.. now admittedly the Kavanaugh bounce isn’t in the polling in most of these states but to be down 11-18 in every race is flat out pathetic, and inexcusable.
I live in PA17 (formerly PA18) and the messaging (what little there is) is the same crap that I tried to tell people could and eventually did cost PA18. And nearly lost OH12.. the GOP messaging doesn’t hunt here... yet they still keep using it.. it’s pathetic and not going to win them anything.
And for the record, Lamb is going to cakewalk to re-election. I bet you most voters in this district couldn’t even name you the R oponent.
Casey is the weakest guy there could be, and Barletta isn’t even a footnote.. they are barely doing anything and what they are doing is TERRIBLe messaging if you actually want to and are trying to win. I would like to think OH should be a solid R win, but I don’t know if even Kavaanaugh bounce is going to close 10+ points, especially if they are running the same messaging in OH as they are in PA which I assume they are.
I do agree that the GOP will confirm, and Manchin was AlWAYS a yes, never any doubt about it... but he also knows he can’t be the yes that puts Kavanaugh over. So GOP must get 50 on therir own, once they do Manchin and a few others will vote yes... but if the GOP doesn’t put up 50 those Dems will stick to their parties line knowing it ends their political careers.
52-55 confirm votes at the end of the day. I full expect confirmation, but I am just saying if for some reason it doesn’t happen and I were Trump I would immediately announce my intention to resubmit him after the new senate is seated because I will not allow the sham, and repugnant, character assassination of a good man like Kavanaugh he rewarded.
Make every senator up for re election and their opponents have to state openly their intention for for voting on Kavanaugh... nationalize the election.. and force the left’s hand.
I have no problem making the midterms a referendum on the court... I don’t think for one minute the GOP will fail to confirm, but, if some weirdness happens, that is what I would do.
The idea the Dems thought this Kavanaugh circus ha any upside tells you how out of step they are. Trump isn’t going to back down just because you squeal... and the attempt to turn what at worst, if all true, was essentially some underage unwanted drunken groping into he’s a sexual predator, was ridiculous. Dems obviously thought it would sell with women, but other than the far left Kool aid drinkers I haven’t met a single woman of any political affiliation that isn’t angry as hell at the Dems. They see through this whole fiasco inately and know this harms real true victims and even if they are sympathetic to Ms Ford, they feel she’s a victim of the Dems as well.
Obviously they thought they had an upside to all this, but they were beyond stupid to think that.
Well, you’re wrong on the vote already. MurCowSki is a no already.
I think Kid Rock would have walked into that seat in MI.
We shall see.... Murkowski may or may not vote yes on confirmation... But as long as the GOP hits 50, I expect a few Dems to join... But none of them will be the 50th vote.
So, still believe its 52-55 vote to confirm.
Well his celebrity status would mean he probably would run his own campaign, and not the stupid prepackaged messaging the GOP has been using and failing with up here for decades...
But he’s not on the ballot...
I know. I had hoped he could pull James over, but alas!
This is what Murkowski actually is reported to have said:
“[I] took the very, very difficult vote that I did. I believe that Brett Kavanaugh is a good man. I believe he is a good man, it just may be that in my view he’s not the right man for the court at this time,” Murkowski told reporters.
I know she voted down Cloture, but that sentence does not state she’s a no... there is a lot of wiggle in that “it just may be that in my view”... that’s about as Clintonesque as you can get.
That’s a speculative statement, not a definitive one.... So I wonder if she’s just playing coy for something.
Almost immediately she began walking this back.
The polls in PA for Gov/Sen/CD 17 are atrocious, yes. They are so bad than I am skeptical as to their accuracy but it seems certain we are well behind in all 3 races.
Michigan (Gov/Sen) as well, where the RINO douchebag Governor is not supporting the party.
While not particularly optimistic I’m not ready to write off the Senate races in OH and WI.
It is a pity that Josh Mandel dropped out of the OH Senate race.
I Live in PA17 and I am telling you there is no reason to doubt the polling here or anywhere else in the upper Midwest. The GOP is electorally incompetent. They keep trying to run messaging and campaigns like they are in the south, where they have large registration advantages and simply need to pander to the base to win... calling your opponent names and saying they will just be a pawn for pelosi ir Schumer, is a dog that won’t hunt!
Here is the latest Barletta ad.
http://www.witf.org/news/2018/09/barletta-tries-to-wake-up-sleepy-senate-race-with-attack-ad.php
This ad will appeal to no one, other than the folks who already plan to vote no to Casey. Red meat for you base is fine, but it can’t be your entire campaign. This type of ad being a part of your messaging is fine, but when attacking the democrat is all you are offering and your entire campaign you are done... and Barletta has no cash, so this and other ads like it are all you see... when you see an ad at all.
You tell me, what person outside the Republican base is going to highly motivated to show up, let alone be enthusiastic to vote for you with that message??? Let alone someone who is a disenfranchised former multigenerational democrat? Or a cross over or general non traditional voter? What in that ad remotely tells you what Barletta is going to do for you?
This is the same story across the entire upper Midwest. The GOP messaging is completely wrong and it’s exactly the sort of campaign that caused both PA18 and OH12.. it doesn’t work, it hasn’t worked for 20+ years, yet you keep thinking it will. Stupid.
Casey should be on the ropes with just a half way competent run campaign, he has zero charisma, presence, or campaign ability. He literally campaigns by not being seen, because the more he is seen the lower he polls... yet the GOP continue being utterly incompetent. When you add the Kavanaugh situation to everything, there is zero excuse for Casey to win, yet he will handily.
The people you need to get to vote to win up here as a Republican are what used to be referred to as the blue dog democrats... now they call them working class whites. (Though they are not and never were exclusively white). You don’t have a registration advantage like you do in the south, so you can’t just talk to your base in statewide races and win. Democrats have the registration and organizational (other than WI) advantage.
Believe the Polls, the GOP is stillborn up here..
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