Thoughts?
Well first off the genetic ballot....while it might not be *entirely* useless is not something that is very important. For House I mean, talking about “generic ballot” in regards to the Senate like this article does is just retarded.
I recall a week or 2 ago there was a poll of IDK how many swing districts and the GOP was up by 3 or 4 points.
Now there are a lot of seats in play, polls are tight. Dems acknowledge this but say “they will all break our way cause that’s how a ‘wave’ works”. That certainly *could* happen but they need almost all of them to get a narrow majority. Talk of a large rat majority is fantasy.
After all this there are only THREE GOP House seats that are SURE losses (2 of those because of illegal gerrymandering by the court in PA). And a just handful more that seem iffy. In addition while the media isn’t talking about it we have several pickup opportunities that could offset some losses, 2 open seats a piece in MN and NV being the best.
Maybe I’m an optimistic fool but I feel good in predicting a hold and think there is decent chance the rat net gain will be very paltry, single digits.
As for the Senate I’d give us slight edge in holding NV and AZ and don’t think TX and TN are quite as vulnerable as rats hope, I’m more worried about TN but think the rat is likely to max out at 48% or so like Harold Ford in 2006. With at least 5 rat seats being critically at risk and several more that could potentially be GOP gains the rats being bullish on the Senate makes no sense. They need BOTH AZ and NV and to hold ALL there own or get TN too if they lose even one of them. An inside straight as we call that is possible but doesn’t seem likely this year with these “red state” democrat seats up. ND, FL, MO, MT, IN will all be close but I feel good about them.