Posted on 09/21/2018 2:08:38 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
The undocumented population in the United States could be twice as large as the most commonly-used estimate, according to a research study published Friday in the scientific journal Plos One.
The paper, led by Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, a researcher at Yale and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, estimates there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.
Fazel-Zarandi's study compared inflows and outflows of immigrants as well as demographic data. According to the report, the number of undocumented immigrants could be as low as 16.5 million, or as high as 29.1 million.
“We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Edward Kaplan, a co-author of the report, told Yale Insights. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”
Most previous estimates, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey (ACS), place the undocumented population at around 11 million people.
The ACS is generated annually through interviews with about 3.5 million people.
"You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach," Jonathan Feinstein, another co-author, told Yale Insights.
Still, the new study found similarities in growth patterns of the undocumented population to the ACS reports of the past two decades.
Most immigration researchers have reported a plateau in growth of that population since 2007, spurred mainly by the decrease in Mexican illegal immigration to the United States.
The reduction in illegal crossings by Mexican citizens coincided with an increase in illegal immigration from Central America and Asia. But the overall undocumented population has leveled off, and possibly slightly decreased.
The Pew Research Center, which provides regular updates on immigration statistics -- based in part on ACS numbers -- estimated last year that the undocumented population dropped to 11.3 million from a high of 12.2 million.
The Yale study, which goes as far back as 1990, found the same upward and downward trajectory as the ACS studies, with the undocumented population ballooning through the 1990s and plateauing after 2007.
"“The trajectory is the same. We see the same patterns happening, but they’re just understating the actual number of people who have made it here,” said Fazel‐Zarandi.
The researchers emphasized the new number does not imply a growth in illegal immigration but a longstanding miscount of existing undocumented immigrants.
"We wouldn’t want people to walk away from this research thinking that suddenly there’s a large influx happening now,” said Feinstein. “It’s really something that happened in the past and maybe was not properly counted or documented.”
The researchers also noted if the undocumented population is twice as high as previous estimates, that means the incidence of criminality among undocumented immigrants is half as high as previously reported.
"You have the same number of crimes but now spread over twice as many people as was believed before, which right away means that the crime rate among undocumented immigrants is essentially half whatever was previously believed," said Kaplan.
Might be easier to count the number of bedbugs and divide by 1000.....
I really meant to stress that they are everywhere.
“11 million” has been a bogus number for a long time. Just natural reproduction of “anchor babies”, which are STILL illegal aliens, regardless of their supposed political protection, plus some very poor record keeping or even semi-accurate estimates, just cannot keep up with the reality.
Add to the stream from Mexico, so many other nationalities that have filtered in through Mexico, and the inordinate number of visa overstays, some from parts of the world distinctly UNFRIENDLY to the US, and you have a large fifth-column invasion.
Only since January 2017 has there been much pushback on this flood of unknown and largely unwanted skulkers wandering in the shadows. We don’t have a handle on it even yet, but have been able to grapple only with small parts of it so far.
There are probably more Mexicans in our country than there are in Mexico.
Democrat’s voter base.
Demographically between the year 2000 and 2013, Mexico has had a depopulation of 18 million people
This does not count illegals for South and Central America , Asia, Africa or Islamic States.
There is probably an easy 30 million illegals in the country and almost certainly more than that
This would help to account for why 20% of the US prison population are illegals.
You can walk into stores in California and be the only English speaker.
And the 22 million is just in California.
Or Asia, especially China. On the West Coast the Asian immigrant population seems to be growing about as fast as the Hispanic population.
22,000,000 x 2. . . in California.
I’d bet everything I own that it’s closer to 30 million.
Amnesty ‘86
11 mil ‘97
30 mil ‘18
do the math.
where is my check?
INVADERS
Words matter.
It is AT LEAST 22 million and we’ve known this for years.
What a crap shoot..............
This is the greatest invasion of any country in world history.
In 2014, the Border Patrol estimated AT LEAST 40 million ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS.
No doubt, it’s double that today.
You must be mistaken. Teddy Kennedy and Emmanuel Celler promised in 1965 that the culture of the US wouldn't change with their immigration act.
Captain Obvious has gotten a PhD.
The holding pattern at eleven million either assumed that no one was coming in (BS), the number leaving was equal to the number entering (funny, everyone at the border seems to be going norte), or we have a big pile of dead Mexicans somewhere around here.
Most previous estimates, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey (ACS), place the undocumented population at around 11 million people.
Even I avoided the ACS because it was too damn nosy. And they expected illegals to answer it?
Most immigration researchers have reported a plateau in growth of that population since 2007, spurred mainly by the decrease in Mexican illegal immigration to the United States.
A plateau in the growth? Interesting term. Matematically that means the first derivative has reached a constant peak, or the acceleration (second derivative) has reached 0. If you are going north at 65 mph you get farther and farther north every second even if your speed has reached a peak.
The Pew Research Center, which provides regular updates on immigration statistics -- based in part on ACS numbers -- estimated last year that the undocumented population dropped to 11.3 million from a high of 12.2 million.
Hundreds or thousands are sneaking south across the border every day? South? BS. BS. BS.
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