Posted on 08/10/2018 8:50:37 AM PDT by Kaslin
We're heading into the home stretch in America's unusually lengthy (six months and nine days) primary election season. Some three-quarters of Americans have had a chance to vote for Democratic and Republican candidates for Congress, and state and local offices.
Their choices tell us something about the results in November. But not everything, including which party will win the apparently close battle for a majority in the House of Representatives.
The consensus of those who follow these elections most closely is that the Democrats will win. The most recent evidence comes from the ultra-narrow victory of Republican State Sen. Troy Balderson in the special election for Ohio's 12th Congressional District.
Balderson beat Democrat Danny O'Connor 50 to 49 percent, only a 1 percent margin, in a district that gave President Donald Trump an 11 percent margin in 2016 and Mitt Romney a 10 percent margin in 2012.
Ohio 12 is one of those hybrid districts, about half suburban and half urban, about half rural and half small-town. It includes part of the Ohio State University campus and affluent northern suburbs of Columbus, the Midwest's fastest-growing major metro area, plus most or all of several counties to the north and east.
Romney carried both suburbs and small counties by modest margins. Trump got whacked in the affluent suburbs but won the small counties by overwhelming margins.
On Tuesday, and even more in early voting, Democrat O'Connor carried upscale suburban precincts by robust 2-1 margins. Republican Balderson ran well but not as far ahead as Trump, amid lower turnout in the small counties.
Another way to put it: Republicans get the worst showings of both of their last two nominees, losing even further ground among white college graduates while failing to duplicate Trump's gains among whites non-college graduates.
That pattern was discernible in earlier special elections and makes it easy to see how Democrats could win a House majority. It's widely attributed to Trump's combative and provocative style.
Another way to put it: Republicans get the worst showings of both of their last two nominees, losing even further ground among white college graduates while failing to duplicate Trump's gains among whites non-college graduates.
There's something to that, of course, but not everything. The voter shifts from Romney 2012 to Trump 2016 were actually small by historic standards, and the steadiness of Republican and Democratic percentages in the two-plus decades since 1994 have been historically small, with a steady increase in straight-ticket voting till 2016.
What we've also seen in congressional elections since the middle 1990s is a resistance to one-party control. With close presidential elections, only a few voters need to defect in the off year to produce this result, and except for the contests just after 9/11, they have.
Former President Bill Clinton faced Republican Houses and Senates for six of his eight years in office. Then-President George W. Bush's Republicans gained seats in 2002, but he faced a Democratic House for two years and a Democratic Senate for three and a half. Former President Barack Obama faced a Republican House for six of eight years and a Republican Senate for two
You can ascribe the losses of each president's party as the predictable result of some combination of extremist overreach, legislative fecklessness, personal scandals and suspicion of insiders. But for one reason or another, they keep happening and could again this year, when Republicans could lose their House majority and might conceivably, despite their advantage in seats, lose the Senate, too.
But there's reason to be cautious about predictions. Republicans' big gains weren't visible at this point in the 1994 cycle (I wrote the first article predicting they might win a majority, in July), nor were Democrats' big gains in 2006 or Republicans' sweep of Senate seats in 2014.
Nor are area polls this far out always a reliable guide to November. Except in early June, Democrats have had a 6 to 8 percent lead all year in the RealClearPolitics generic congressional vote poll average. But it's suddenly down to the lower end of that range, numbers that could produce a Republican majority in the House (because Democratic voters are demographically clustered in relatively few districts).
Does that signal a genuine shift in sentiment, or is it just statistical noise? No one knows for sure. Corporate America seems to be joining with affluent Trump haters to give Democrats a significant money edge in many key races. But then, the smart money was overwhelmingly on the side of Hillary Clinton two years ago.
In that race, like the House races this year, Democrats started off ahead in turnout, but Republicans managed to squeak out just enough votes in the right places to win -- as they did in Ohio 12 this week, and may or may not in November.
Basing our thought process on who will lose and not who will win.
Stupid title. There is only ome party that can loose it.
Yes it is.
Michael just doesn’t like the answer.
BS - in both cases one could feel the wave. In 2006, it was all about getting out of Iraq, and getting rid of Rumsfeld.
From WIKI: "On November 1, 2006, Bush stated he would stand by Rumsfeld as defense secretary for the length of his term as president... After the elections, on November 8, Bush announced Rumsfeld would resign his position as Secretary of Defense.
All the war protests ended after the RATs took back the house.
Convoluted Headline.
Hint: It starts with a “D”.
Barone is getting old and losing his edge. He was the best in his field a few years ago.
Michael just doesn’t like the answer.
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Barone is a conservative.
In the David Brooks mold.
Metro areas are cities are Democrat enclaves. This growth is probably skewing this once GOP district and explains why it is more competitive.
Oh, come on people... the recent elections were not even primaries... they were special elections. So, far, we are 9 for 10 on special elections.
They were held in the middle of August.
Anybody who has a job is on vacation during the middle of August.
The GOP will turnout in record numbers in Nov when it counts, because we know what is at stake.
Blue wave??? ppppppppppp... nonsense.
Barone wisely hedges his bets.
That’s only your opinion. He’s good but not as sharp as he used to be.
Deocrats can’t lose the house because they don’t have the house to lose.
What’s a “vacation”?
Thank you for referencing that article Kaslin. As usual, please note that the following critique is directed at the article and not at you.
Blah, blah, blah.
The referenced article treats the upcoming election as just another ordinary election imo, ignoring that angry patriots elected proven business maverick Pres. Trump to drain the swamp.
Patriots elected Trump in retaliation for 70+ unhappy years of Constitution-ignoring uniparty rule, particularly during the lawless Obama Administration.
Patriots know that they need to finish the job that they started when they elected Trump by electing as many new, state sovereignty-respecting lawmakers as they can in the 2018 midterm elections to replace anti-Trump career lawmakers, new patriot lawmakers who will support Trump’s vision for MAGA.
The base will be more fired up than ever. They know how critical this election is.
The Dems are showing their true, ugly colors. Normal, sane people see it and don’t like it.
If there was a MAGA party, they would both lose.
Who SHOULD lose the House The Dems ..should...
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