There are hundreds of ways to influence a culture. Cultures change over time even without wars. Probably the best way for Saudi Arabia to modernize is to continue failing. Their entire culture is on a collision with reality. The price of oil in real purchasing terms will continue to drop as more and more oil comes on line that was previously unreachable for one reason or another. They have already agreed to let women drive. They have sent home a huge number of imported laborers. They are adapting their population to work in real jobs, some for the first time. (Failing miserably there, but time will improve their performance.) They are developing a huge trade city where few of their religious laws apply. Most likely, the water for that city will flow from Israel. They are seeking foreign investment which means they must alter their culture or it won’t occur. The resent arrest (for “corruption) of dozens (or more) of Saudis who were held until they released some or most of their assets was more than likely a move to curb support of terrorism. (It resulted shortly after Trump sent high level emissaries to SA.)
Just attacking or allowing an attack on Saudi Arabia could cause chaos in the entire world. No war goes according to plan. It always gets messier and lasts longer than was envisioned. Recall, in almost every conflict the politicians promised the soldiers would “be home by Christmas.” Not only is the risk great, as many of those countries have acknowledged nuclear weapons or may, like Saudi Arabia, have purchased nuclear weapons, but the fallout, both literal and figurative, will be widespread and worldwide. The kingdom is moving in the right direction. If Trump were to initiate, in effect, a war, he can kiss his next term goodbye. It’s just not worth the risks.
The US should pull out of Saudia and end its umbrella guarantee to the Sauds. Let the Sauds and Iranians fight it out
The Kingdom or rather the Empire of the Sauds WILL fall - the individual tribes resent their rule and are kept in check only by the money doled out (which is ending soon) and the Wahabii rule (which MBS is trying to undermine) - once the current king dies, expect warfare between the 3000 odd princes.
Great insight. This home truth may be why Americans have been so distraught (if they care) over how many of our recent military operations have gone. The greatest war we were in, WW2, was ,for the USA, so different. The longer it went the bigger the victories. Aside from Kasserine Pass there were no significant US defeats. In the Pacific only the Battle of Savo Island marred the almost universal succession of victories. Thus all wars are or were, since fewer and fewer are around who actually remember the war or even the decade afterwards with a sort of WW2 replay over Korea. , judged by the standard of WW2. Of course a lot of this image was a product of Madison Avenue and Hollywood but it obvious to even the dumbest that Allied battlelines were moving ever closer to Berlin and Tokyo. Big difference withWW1 where everything seemed to not go according to plan and the Allies stumbled to victory over a punch drunk Germany. Since 1945 when the shooting starts there is an almost automatic chorus of opposition and denigration of national leadership. The notion that wars are brutal, messy, unpredictable and morally ambiguous has never been accepted nationally. All our wars are still proclaimed as crusades and out opponents are villains (except the muzzies who really are villains on a huge cultural scale. But that is another discussion) I doubt if this cartoonish way of conceptualizing conflict is likely ever to go away. It is certainly one part of ‘American exceptionalism’ I do not care for.