It’s July. Virtually no one except pussy-hat-wearing Ds are paying attention. And it’s an “adults” poll of states that don’t even do registration by party. That said, here is what I’ve learned in the last week in some critical House races (and no, I don’t buy that the “50” flipped seats mean anything-—many of those are very low level state house seats in races literally, and I mean literally, with 8% turnout.) The ONLY special the Ds won was the “massive” 500 point victory by Conor Lamb.
Anyway:
*My source “OhioWan” in Ohio, who has been dead on (perhaps even a tad low for Rs) says flat out “No Republican House member is in trouble in OH.” He says Chabot will win and Balderson in CD12 will hold Tiberie’s seat. Moreover, he says that they have Renacci at about -5 or -6, but that Renacci’s name recognition is a mere 34% (Brown’s is 90) and Renacci has a lot of money. They are confident that he will roll out a crapload of ads and by October be in a dead heat.
Remember, “unaffiliated” voters in OH can be either D or R. They are “unaffiliated” because they didn’t vote in the last primary so they are hard to pin down. We did it in 2016, and were very accurate at determining they were breaking hard for Trump, by going back four election cycles PER HOUSEHOLD. No one else did this kind of detailed work. Even then, we were still low!
*In AZ, I asked a very high source about the McSally seat, which is open and which Sabato has as a “tossup.” “We will win that seat” came the unequivocal reply.
*Recent polling in CA 49 shows the R up 3 (Issa only won by 1). In WA, Reichert’s seat, Dino Rossi raised a ton of money and will be very competitive to hold that. There are two seats in MN that the MN GOP think they can win.
Now, as to the generic ballot: today a poll came out showing D+4. Richard Baris thinks that’s the high end for the Ds, that in fact it may be much lower. But THEY NEED A GENERIC OF FIVE TO HAVE A HOPE OF WINNING THE HOUSE.
Baris tells me that all the pollsters are still off in understanding “likely voters” and that his model is now refined so that it is 60% more accurate than theirs. He thinks the House as of now is even in terms of polling and that all that remains is enthusiasm.
So what about enthusiasm? Debbie Lesko’s AZ special showed heavy turnout here; TX has had massive R turnout (which is why neither of the two TX House seats Sabato claims are “tossups” are. Both are solid R. TX people tell me that no R will lose in TX.
In short, losing a few minor state house seats in 2016 wasn’t a predictor of anything. I still think the GOP hasn’t even begun to galvanize for fall, and when it does, we still could very well see the House Rs GAIN a few seats. As of today, I have 27 seats competitive. Ds have to win 60% of those to take the House. If Rs turn just 3-4 of those, game over.