LAUGHABLE!
Posted on 07/26/2018 4:25:37 PM PDT by GuavaCheesePuff
We worked! REALLY hard! AND WE WON!
Were you in the TRENCHES with us on Election Day? I think not.
You can kiss my butt that ‘She Who Shall Not Be Named’ is NOT your President!
Did ILLINOIS voters move to WISCONSIN to escape the high taxes?
No.
The Texas left has run Wendy Davis with a Penis.
Even people who recognize Cruz as a Goldman Sachs open borders puppet won’t vote for Beto.
Cruz is safe.
See Posts #54, #55, #65, #77 and #81.
You can put money on a Walker Win. :)
Yes. I agree.
I was giving that to the naysayers who did this poll (and a few, here) that claim Walker can’t win.
Who answers calls from unknown numbers? Seriously. I only answer known numbers.
.@NBCPolitics poll today has #WIGov Walker (R) down 13% to likely opponent Tony Evers (D). If that’s the case, this would probably look like the state court race from back in April. Judge Rebecca Dallet (D-aligned) won by 12%, & carried a majority of legislative districts.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1022632300339781632
With a Baldwin win as well?
What about Sen Baldwin?
Wisconsin nice says: "it's time to give someone else a chance." Who said that ??!! Track this idiot down and lobotomize them if it hasn't already been done.
What friggin' idiocy. Show me the damn internals ....FOR LIKELY VOTERS.
I will not be overconfident, but this so called blue wave looks red to me.
The sample distribution (R-D-I) is 25%-33%-41%.
Yesterday he was ahead in the polls.
it’s NBC Nothing But Communism.
These clowns actually reported Hitlery won the presidency (watch on Youtube with the famous Chuck Toad meltdown). This is fake News deluxe..
Came across this Twitter thread about this very poll, which explains why it is so bad:
https://twitter.com/ltthompso/status/1022594506879848448
Well, that and the fact it’s Marist (just one of the worst) and “adults.”
Thanks. I looked at his links to the in-depth state poll info. 22% of Conservative-Very Conservative voters think Walker should be replaced (ostensibly with Tony Evers) ? That doesn’t pass the smell test.
OK, name the 50 seats that have been flipped and how many are state/local vs. federal? Gird up, man, oh ye of little faith...this fall is going to be splendid...we keep the House and gain in the Senate. The question is what are YOU doing to ensure this instead of clutching pearls? And what the hell are you talking about swing voters being for secure voters in one election and open in another? Me thinks you’re watching waaaaaayyyyyy too much CNN.
It’s July. Virtually no one except pussy-hat-wearing Ds are paying attention. And it’s an “adults” poll of states that don’t even do registration by party. That said, here is what I’ve learned in the last week in some critical House races (and no, I don’t buy that the “50” flipped seats mean anything-—many of those are very low level state house seats in races literally, and I mean literally, with 8% turnout.) The ONLY special the Ds won was the “massive” 500 point victory by Conor Lamb.
Anyway:
*My source “OhioWan” in Ohio, who has been dead on (perhaps even a tad low for Rs) says flat out “No Republican House member is in trouble in OH.” He says Chabot will win and Balderson in CD12 will hold Tiberie’s seat. Moreover, he says that they have Renacci at about -5 or -6, but that Renacci’s name recognition is a mere 34% (Brown’s is 90) and Renacci has a lot of money. They are confident that he will roll out a crapload of ads and by October be in a dead heat.
Remember, “unaffiliated” voters in OH can be either D or R. They are “unaffiliated” because they didn’t vote in the last primary so they are hard to pin down. We did it in 2016, and were very accurate at determining they were breaking hard for Trump, by going back four election cycles PER HOUSEHOLD. No one else did this kind of detailed work. Even then, we were still low!
*In AZ, I asked a very high source about the McSally seat, which is open and which Sabato has as a “tossup.” “We will win that seat” came the unequivocal reply.
*Recent polling in CA 49 shows the R up 3 (Issa only won by 1). In WA, Reichert’s seat, Dino Rossi raised a ton of money and will be very competitive to hold that. There are two seats in MN that the MN GOP think they can win.
Now, as to the generic ballot: today a poll came out showing D+4. Richard Baris thinks that’s the high end for the Ds, that in fact it may be much lower. But THEY NEED A GENERIC OF FIVE TO HAVE A HOPE OF WINNING THE HOUSE.
Baris tells me that all the pollsters are still off in understanding “likely voters” and that his model is now refined so that it is 60% more accurate than theirs. He thinks the House as of now is even in terms of polling and that all that remains is enthusiasm.
So what about enthusiasm? Debbie Lesko’s AZ special showed heavy turnout here; TX has had massive R turnout (which is why neither of the two TX House seats Sabato claims are “tossups” are. Both are solid R. TX people tell me that no R will lose in TX.
In short, losing a few minor state house seats in 2016 wasn’t a predictor of anything. I still think the GOP hasn’t even begun to galvanize for fall, and when it does, we still could very well see the House Rs GAIN a few seats. As of today, I have 27 seats competitive. Ds have to win 60% of those to take the House. If Rs turn just 3-4 of those, game over.
Unless it's the guy in Texas.
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