Those numbers are macro economics and have millions of factors. What we are talking about is basic business principles. The end consumer of a product must pay ALL the costs of bringing that product to market. It can’t be any other way. Businesses exist to make a profit so the end consumer has to cover all the costs plus a little more for profit. Taxes are just one of those costs and no matter how you break it down every penny of that tax is in the price the END consumer pays or that product will not be on the market.
Again, that is demonstrably incorrect. Tax reform wasn't just a small one of millions of factors. It massively lowered the cost of doing business. If those tax cuts didn't cause prices to fall, tax increases (tariffs) won't necessarily either.
In more appropriate economic jargon, if that will help is there are two pieces of the pie - one is consumer surplus - which is what you are referring to - and the other is producer surplus.
When tariffs go up, some of the loss goes onto the producer (which in this case, is made up of multiple facets - the Chinese manufacturer, the shipper, and the US retailer or final seller), and some of the loss goes onto the consumer. Where this gets muddled, though, is when you export the job overseas, it's a 100% tax on the US consumer, and in as much as that job comes back due to tariffs, is a 100% increase in consumer surplus.