Posted on 06/16/2018 10:09:34 AM PDT by GonzoII
To modernise North Korea’s economy, outside aid and investment – a great deal of it – will be needed from governments, multilateral agencies and private investors. .
Will North Korea become the next big thing for investors now that the Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un summit has ended with handshakes and a “walkabout” (rather than a walkout) by the two leaders?
The question is not premature, even if denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula is some way off. The general verdict on the Singapore summit is that there is still a long way to go before we can say Trump’s “art of the deal” has paid off. But the economic and financial implications of the summit are more immediate.
Save a reversal of the Singapore agreement, Pyongyang and Seoul will emphasise economic and military matters. Kim has emphasised his desire to modernise North Korea’s economy, but he cannot afford to do so alone.
Nor will South Korea be able to pick up the tab in the same way West Germany did for East Germany when the two halves of the divided nation were reunified. Outside aid and investment – a great deal of it – will be needed from governments, multilateral agencies and private investors.
Besides South Korea, this will come from China, Japan and maybe the United States and Europe so far as official aid is concerned. Multilateral aid will flow in time. But the more intriguing question is how will private investment flow into the hermit kingdom?
(Excerpt) Read more at scmp.com ...
Yup.
Eastern Germany is still working its way up after 30 years.
At least it will finally be completed! Lol!
The only unknown is whether the Kim family is willing to give its absolute power to revive the country.
Despite North Korea’s nominal Communist trappings, is really been a heriditary absolute monarchy ruled by the same family for its entire existence.
East Germany had no choice but to agree to immediate reunification with the West to stave off complete economic collapse,
North Korea isn’t at that point yet.
Sources other than private investment will be counterproductive except for the officials, semi-official operators, and NGOs who end up with all the money.
It may take two generations for the people of North Korea to recover from living in a solitary confinement psycho ward and learn that it is OK to think on their own.
But then I could be wrong. Look how fast Eastern Europe came around after decades of Communist rule. Then again, Eastern Europe was not living under the degree of isolation that the people of North Korea have been.
Germans? Thinking on their own? When did this happen?
FU Multilayeral Agencies who put people at nuclear rixk.
Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary?
You’re right about them, but East Germany? Nobody marches in lockstep better than a German.
I think Trump also basically told him that to accomplish the end goal, of joining the world, it wasn’t necessary for NorK to admit defeat. They just had to comply to denuclearization, open their markets and respect human rights.
He basically told Kim to forget about it when the topic of surrendering came up.
I think Trump held the meeting in Singapore to show that an authoritarian government can exist that has a free market and respect for human rights.
It didn’t have to be an either/or situatin, but both.
If North Korea does become a Singapore, it’s still progress where it is important.
North Korea managed to infiltrate, on a worldwide basis, every area of criminality you can think of. Their economic collapse just wasn’t going to happen.
We have a vehicle, built in Leipzig which was in East Germany prior to unification. (BMW)
The Kim family is organized crime that owns and runs a nation.
Cleaning up North Korea will be a huge challenge and eliminating its nukes will be small potatoes in comparison.
The {Clinton} family is organized crime that owned and ran a nation.
Cleaning up the DC swamp and rampant corruption is a huge challenge and eliminating it will be a slow process. Work is in progress.
MAGA
The only people likely to invest in NK are the Chinese. You can only invest there if you can make Kim be certain that you WILL invade and impale his head on a spike if he even thinks of nationalizing your investments.
Eastern Europe still had:
Food
Education
Christianity
Have you ever seen pics of the NORK soldiers standing next to US or the SK? They look like grade school kids next to College kids. Decades of starvation has taken its toll. Long time to recover. Generations.
I'm not so sure we know for sure. The East Germans were not willing to eat tree bark and make bread from grass and weeds, so huge difference in what their respective populations were able to endure.
Also (to argue in favor of your point) North Korea's big sponsor is the second largest economy in the world. Russia did not come anywhere close for East Germany in said role and was itself living on borrowed time by November 1988.
“If North Korea does become a Singapore, it’s still progress”
What a Godsend that would be for the North Korean people. Singapore is the best example I could think of, to promote to the North Koreans (and Chinese communists). Bravo President Trump!
The situation in Korea is also a bit different from China or Vietnam, which remained strictly authoritarian as their economies developed - South Korea has a relatively huge population living differently, but speaking the same language. They would likely have a higher level of interaction with the North Korean population than China or Vietnam had to deal with.
South Korean media has already made a significant impact in North Korean minds. South Korea also sends out the second highest number of Christian missionaries, after only the USA. North Korean culture and its police state apparatus will likely be able to maintain control regardless, especially in the near to mid term.
North Korea will likely follow its own path, but frankly, it would be hard to do worse than what they have done in the past.
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