Can’t argue with your conclusion. He wil not carry any of the states on your list. They took Trump as a jooke last time. They will stop at nothing to get Trump next time. Why he abanded his vote fraud commission is beyond my understanding, big big mistake.
While I agree that the left didn’t take Trump as seriously as they should have in 2016, many on the right also sat home, or didn’t expect much out of him.
He’s accomplished a lot, and has convinced many on the right that he is worthy of the office. He’s also great at getting those in the middle on his side.
My gut was right about the last election 2 weeks before it took place, and it tells me things will go better for him in 2020. (so, entirely scientific, haha)
Pennsylvania is a great illustration of how different dynamics in the electorate converged. Both Trump and Sen. Pat Toomey won in PA in 2016, but a large contingent of Democrat Trump voters in rural parts of the state didn't support Toomey ... and a large contingent of Republican Toomey voters in suburban areas didn't support Trump.
Personally, I think Trump will win handily in 2020 unless something disastrous happens. I just don't see him winning 40 states.
The biggest reason for my optimism is that I'm convinced a lot of ambivalent voters will vote for him because they love the entertainment value he brings to politics.