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To: mandaladon

Maher is the idiot. In a contest of wit, wisdom, and knowledge, the idiot wouldn’t last 1 minute against the superior intellect, education, and experience of Trump.


29 posted on 06/09/2018 7:53:03 AM PDT by CodeToad
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To: CodeToad; South Dakota; LS; Pollster1
Maher is the idiot.

That may be true, but not here.

Let's look at the data:

The statistical reality is that in modern times, if a recession occurs during or pretty close to a Presidential election year, the standing President OR the Party holding the Presidency always loses that election:

August 1929-March 1933: FDR comes to power
January 1980-July 1980: Reagan is elected
July 1990-March 1991: Clinton is elected (yea, yea, I know....the recession was technically over by election day but if memory serves me correctly, the NBER didn't call the end recession until AFTER the election; indeed, they announced that we were IN a recession around March 1991)
December 2007-June 2009: Obama is elected

In contrast, if the economy is doing well, standing Presidents always win re-election.

Truman won in 1948 (note that recession started during the month of the election, and Truman almost lost)
Ike was re-elected in 1956
Nixon was re-elected in 1972
Reagan was re-elected in 1984
Clinton was re-elected in 1996
Obama was re-elected in 2012

We can say what we want about Maher, but the reality is that "It's the economy, stupid!" is a pretty solid political truth. And, judging by how Trump is flying now, and notwithstanding a flurry of other things that could throw things into a ditch, wishing for a recession is about the best thing statists can do to hope Trump loses in 2020.

53 posted on 06/09/2018 8:24:01 AM PDT by DoodleBob
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