One district I am familiar with is IA-1, held for 2 terms by conservative Rod Blum. There is no way that this is a “toss up.” Blum won 54% in 2016 against a well funded and well known challenger.
Sabato missed the huge Republican gains in 2010 and 2014 by a mile. He is just another liberal hack, and is ‘correct’ about 35 percent of the time. Better than Eleanor Clift, but that isn’t saying much.
Reading all of this is like wading into the swamp. Falling into the rabbit hole.
I will scan over details on Senate races but House races are too many.
Details and analysis seem to be very fluid until September when we know who won primaries and how they campaigned over Summer.
Quite a few of the people listed on the R tossup list are Democrats in R jerseys.
Except for the jersey who would know the difference?
These ratings seem too pro-rat.
Cartwright is “likely dem”? He has a well funded opponent in a district Trump carried.
And Gottenheimer in NJ? Come on.
Ryan’s seat a tossup? KS-2 a tossup?
I don’t buy it.
Esty (CT-5) is retiring? Good, It is a part of Connecticut that went Trump. Mostly small towns and small cities. The only big city is Waterbury, which is not as liberal as some of the other cities), New Britian and Meriden (both R mayors).