I hope that Morrisey has, by this time, learned to successfully run a campaign. I perceive W. Virginia to be a swing state and, if Manchin’s star is falling, he is vulnerable. This is confirmed by Gallup polls which show Manchin underwater after posting a 17 point slide from last year — the largest drop of any senator. However, do not let this give Republicans a false security. This is a state the Republican Party must work very hard to win.
You have a good view. Low turnout of dems can boost Morrisey’s chances.
But Morrisey is not an inspiring, attractive candidate, so there can be a low turnout of repubs as well.
I see Manchin winning because Morrisey is not a stellar candidate. This is a GOP problem.
The GOP problem will not be helped by McConnell and his PACs to help Morrisey. McConnell is not liked at all in WVA and McConnell is horrible at getting GOP candidates elected over an incumbent. The best record McConnell has is in torpedoing tea party or conservatives that refuse to kiss his behind.
The only thing I see as shaming dems to stay home is a full court press by the President against corrupt democrats prior to the midterms. That could possibly lead to a low turnout of dems to give Morrisey a chance.