Posted on 04/27/2018 4:38:20 AM PDT by deks
They will only change not with bombs but as the Soviets and East Germany did, implosion of the existing state apparatus. The nukes have always been for bargaining, as any use they know would mean their annihilation. Kim is not going to be a Gorbachev.
“If you start with the invective calling people ignorant and such, you shouldn’t be surprised when you get it back.”
Someone calls me stupid, and because I see they want to skip knowledge and history of the regime in North Korea, I use the vary correct and not impolite terms that that willing dismissal of that knowledge represents ignorance (which simply means not derogatorily stupid but simply not well informed - lacking knowledge). They either happens because they are that uninformed or they which to ignore it all.
“I’m happy to have arguments with those who disagree with me, but your categorical dismissal of the possibility that Trump has changed Kim’s calculus is frankly dumb.”
I’ll try not to attack you personally, as you seem so willing to do, but I do not see anything (remembering the whole history of the dictatorship) that defines or means that Kim has changed his calculus. Actually, from his view the nuclear blackmail is working in his favor, having obtained a glorious achievement that neither his father or grandfather ever achieved - a face to face with the leader of the U.S. He is now a bigger hero in his country than any past North Korean dictator. What he has as for as next intentions is anyone’s guess but all the history says nothing so far represents “change” in the heart, soul and political mission of North Korea.
“Sure, it may be that Kim is just trying to BS his way into buying more time for building nukes, but he may also watch Trump dropping bombs in Syria last year and this year and his hires of Mattis and Bolton has Kim worrying what happens if Trump strikes his facilities. He cannot not respond like Assad, and his regime would be annihilated in record time if he did.”
Nonsense. The dictator knows the U.S. is not going to call for such an attack as any kind of preemption, but only if North Korea makes some sort of attack first. He knows he can keep his nuclear stuff and keep using it for political blackmail, as long as he does not cross a red line of instigating aggression on the South.
And what is he going to want to eliminate his nukes? An end to the U.S.-South Korea alliance (so that only conventional forces are needed in a war with South Korea alone). That’s not going to happen.
So what will be the continued use of his blackmail “for peace” - just as before economic (financial & industrial) assistance to save his economy with zero internal political change).
We have seen the whole play before. I don’t know why so many people were absent, the tickets were free, and they had more than one showing, in different years.
Exactly. And when all this started the libs were whining that Trump is going to get us in a war with North Korea. Those comments need to be replayed and replayed. Both to make them look foolish and to show what Trump was actually capable of accomplishing. Exactly the opposite.
LOL. Peace through strength. Who knew?
How many times are you going to repost the same thing on the same thread?
you can at least provide a link the 7th or 8th time, to make it a bit different.
How many times are you going to keep demanding I take a different position?
“The dictator knows the U.S. is not going to call for such an attack as any kind of preemption, but only if North Korea makes some sort of attack first.”
As Reagan would say, you seem to know a lot of things that aren’t true. All the rest of your blather flows from this falsehood, so there’s really no reason to go point by point.
Furthermore, if Kim believed actually believed that, there would be no reason for him to stage such a grandiose entreaty. He would literally have zero reason to attempt this kind of head fake when could just continue giving Trump the finger and enriching and testing apace since there is zero chance that we would attack him first. If anything, getting caught BS-ing on this scale would give Trump a mandate for a preemptive attack, which you falsely contend is only possible under the status quo of Pyongyang attacking us or S Korea.
You really should spend some more time thinking about these things instead of just spouting off.
As Reagan would say, you seem to know a lot of things that aren’t true.
“Next move would have been military action in ‘a big way’...”
I think Kim’s nuke program is no more - either broke and/or broke (out of money and/or not functioning anymore). Looking at the health of that escaped soldier, I’m guessing his military isn’t getting the food incentives anymore either. I think Kim is worried about his military’s next move - which might be against him.
Finally. A voice of reason. Yours.
His military are in very rough shape health wise I understand.......the food distribution, what little there has been, the higher officers take.. and further take what is left and sells it for cash. Very little if any gets to the lower levels.
The military works the fields and gleen what they can from them. The entire state is in a mess out side of the City.....where the elites are. But even they are ‘starved’ for the high end trinkets etc they covet.
In N. Korea Un has to “buy” their loyalty, and the elites compare themselves to one another as class is highly significant. Trump cut off the revenue sources. So UNS very afraid the elites will turn against him...as well as the army.
People with very little insight on North Korea are embarrassing themselves all over FR these days — the naivete and gullibility is just nothing short of stunning. What they write is so pathetically detached from the reality over here in Northeast Asia. Thanks for adding a sane voice as to what all this really means and what NK is actually doing and that it’s only kabuki and part of a long, predictable cycle of carrot and sticks. We are only ONCE AGAIN in the temporary carrot phase as they maneuver to get what they want.
Japanese papers over here in Tokyo last night were full of the skepticism. And they should know best.
We have had detailed threads on FR for nearly 20 years about the long, unmovable reality of NK and the Kim Regime (still in power) and suddenly everyone is on the threads with a bovine tendency to believe there is substance behind all the staged optics and imagery.
Yes it is different.......the economic sanctions have cut out all revenue sources into the City among the elites and governing bodies. Kim has depleted ‘all’ his reserves, which formally got him through previous years sanctions, he can only retain power by paying for the elites and governments loyalty..........That is what has brought Kim and his brass to the tables....they cannot survive as leaders as the elites and army will turn on them.
This is why he’s doing whatever they are telling him to do.....in order to retain leadership, but not really, China will be calling the Governing cards along the way now even if he’s left in power, which he will be .....
Nobody wants a grand exodus from the North to the South. If the North Korean people ‘believe’ their leader is bringing prosperity to their country via these summits and meetings they’ll remain there.
Trump had a bigger button.
That’s all it took.
______________________________________________
What it took was for Trump to lean heavily on China’s pocketbook by threatening the loss of zillions of dollars per year in sales of cheap plastic junk now being unloaded on Americans who have yet to discover that “cheap” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive. Big-Daddy China leaned heavily on little Kimmy, who just discovered he can be easily replaced.
You’re a clever guy. You’d make a great parrot in another life.
Visualize:
POTUS Trump and Kim Jong Un at a table ...
...signing the Treaty ENDING the Korean War ...
...get out a few cold “beverages” ...
... flip channels and watch lib heads explode ...
...its going to happen ...
;>)
Great news.
President Trump should get at least some of the credit.
>> foolish, incompetent, expensive, and stupid
Negligent, opportunistic are my first thoughts.
No I did not forget anything. Not one red cent to these basturds.
He is playing us to get the big bonus that Iran got (250 billion US$)then NEVER give "full, unrestricted/24/7/366(?)". Just wait and see, it is coming.
Like Obama a narcissist like Rocket Man never can be trusted.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.