People with very little insight on North Korea are embarrassing themselves all over FR these days — the naivete and gullibility is just nothing short of stunning. What they write is so pathetically detached from the reality over here in Northeast Asia. Thanks for adding a sane voice as to what all this really means and what NK is actually doing and that it’s only kabuki and part of a long, predictable cycle of carrot and sticks. We are only ONCE AGAIN in the temporary carrot phase as they maneuver to get what they want.
Japanese papers over here in Tokyo last night were full of the skepticism. And they should know best.
We have had detailed threads on FR for nearly 20 years about the long, unmovable reality of NK and the Kim Regime (still in power) and suddenly everyone is on the threads with a bovine tendency to believe there is substance behind all the staged optics and imagery.
Everyone who is pro-Trump thinks the whole story is about Trump, so when you throw any skepticism on their parade of cheers - about Trump, they quickly ignore that the real story is about the regime in North Korea, it’s fundamental nature and mission it gives itself - domination of the Korean peninsula by one means or another - and how EVERY move by the west has pretended that North Korea is no different than any other country, and given the right “incentives” will change. Like I tell folks, it will not take war, but North Korea will change, when it implodes.
I truly think Trump was wrong to agree to the negotiations. The sanctions should have remained in place until China and South Korea had no choice but to deal with an imploded North Korea. If Trump is to prove himself as a great negotiator, that’s where he will leave conditions. He should demand - no, we have nothing to offer until international inspections declare your nuclear ambitions dead; promises mean nothing, we have to have verifiable results or we can’t change the status quo, including all the sanctions. Then we wait, and like the Soviets and East Germany North Korea implodes. Anything else will just make Trump a big hero - in North Korea, for having saved it’s existence to go on being the brutal regime it is.
....”We have had detailed threads on FR for nearly 20 years about the long, unmovable reality of NK and the Kim Regime (still in power) and suddenly everyone is on the threads with a bovine tendency to believe there is substance behind all the staged optics and imagery”.....
I don’t think it’s so much the ‘show’ we’re watching....rather that people here understand Trump doesn’t operate as past administrations.... and he’s STILL holding the cards at this juncture. Also Trump and Xi’s relationship is at a very different level than with former past Presidents.
I agree Kim likely will not change how he runs his nation....but he does want to remain in power and I think they’re going to let him do so with rope around his neck by China.
Reality might change. No change is evident right now, but the war may end which is a start. Then the norks might liberalize and allow reunification. Tha's a stretch since that's the end of the line for Kim, and military surrounding him. I'm sure Pompeo reminded Kim of the ways that change is possible wihout using Trump's bigger button that actually works.