Not sure that orbit is needed. If a KEP is delivered from the stratosphere or above would it need to be a 20 ton projectile? Terminal velocity would probably be a given and the projectile would be sized for the mission. Could be done without encroaching on their airspace (toss bombing) and if done with stealth tech, what would anybody know except for something that has multiple possible explanations.
No knowledge, just speculation!
This is the limiting factor for KEP. If you rely on kinetic energy only, did you know that the terminal velocity for even a 1000 kg object the size of a small refrigerator dropped from space (17000 mph orbit speed) is slowed to less than 200 mph by the atmosphere by the time reaches the surface? When you do the sims using the physics, its harder to make a KE weapon effective than it might seem. (This is also why we are well protected against most meteor threats.)
Good speculating.
I was fixating on the “tungsten telephone pole” analogy, so followed the numbers re: a 20 ton mass.
Even at 1 ton, lift capacity is a problem - rockets are high-visibility, and I’m sure others have means of getting a good look at a long, thin, mostly featureless satellite that just hangs there.
Then that object disappears from orbit, minutes before a gaping crater appears at a notorious site. Pretty clear what happened, even if it can’t be proven per se.
Anything much less than 1 ton probably fast loses the point/expense of putting it up there. Impact becomes comparable to comparable-cost weapons which can impact much faster (vs awaiting orbital positioning).
Like solar power and EVs, RFGs have their problems but are tantalizingly attractive in their very simplicity (well, to some of us).