Doubt your premise quite strongly as the current SCOTUS has ruled against more onerous legislation than this.
Yes SCOTUS has ruled against more onerous legislation.
Because this legislation is less onerous than what they’ve ruled against before, they’re less likely to rule against it. Further, a favorable ruling requires getting Kennedy to side with conservatives and an assumption that whoever blackmailed Roberts over Obamacare doesn’t pull his strings again.
I am not willing to gamble the survival of the republic, American freedom, and the rights of the people of Massachusetts on Justice Kennedy’s mood swings.