Yes SCOTUS has ruled against more onerous legislation.
Because this legislation is less onerous than what they’ve ruled against before, they’re less likely to rule against it. Further, a favorable ruling requires getting Kennedy to side with conservatives and an assumption that whoever blackmailed Roberts over Obamacare doesn’t pull his strings again.
I am not willing to gamble the survival of the republic, American freedom, and the rights of the people of Massachusetts on Justice Kennedy’s mood swings.
Actually I meant less onerous and Kennedy has ruled consistently in favor of the 2nd Amdt.